Iowa Caucus Open Thread

Thu, 01/03/2008 - 3:15pm

We're opening up this post for any and all discussion on the Iowa caucus. I'll keep a running tab of everything that's going on in Iowa in the comments. Click in, and join in with your comments on how it's going.

EDIT: OK, the caucuses have officially started. Our reporter on the ground in Iowa will be giving us regular updates as to how it's progressing. See below for more.

7:00 Early numbers indicate that Clinton and Obama are neck and neck for first on the D side, and Huckabee and Romney on the R side. Detailed numbers in the comments as we get them.

8:10 We're about to hit 50% reporting on the Dem side, so time for another update up here. 47% reporting, Obama 34% Edwards 32% Clinton 32%. Huckabee has 35% of the R polling to Romney's 24%; Thompson, McCain, and Paul are all duking it out for third in the teens. Details and crosstabs below.

8:36 We have 81% of precincts reporting, and it looks like Obama's getting the nod for winner with 36%. The real stories here are the Democratic fight for second place, with Edwards holding the slimmest of leads over Clinton, and the fight for third on the Republican side, which has become a four-way race between Thompson, McCain, Giuliani, and Paul, with four percentage points separating the top from the bottom of that list.

10:00 OK, we have 98% of precincts reporting on the Democratic side. John Edwards still holds second place with 12 votes, but with so few precincts remaining it seems likely that he'll hold that lead. That would make the results on the Democratic side 38% Obama, 30% Edwards, 29% Clinton. The Republican side is currently Huckabee 34%, Romney 25%, Thompson 13% and third over McCain by about 300 votes of 13,000, with 86% of precincts reporting. It also seems likely that he'll hold, though an upset is still possible there. If that occurs, we'll be sure to mention it tomorrow, but that's enough Iowa tracking for one night. Good night, everybody!

40%

By George Nassar

Thu, 01/03/2008 - 8:05pm

40% reporting. Man, this is going FAST.

We're up to 1075 of 1781

By Robin Orlowski

Thu, 01/03/2008 - 8:16pm

Now both Biden and Richardson are at 1 percent.

64% reporting, Obama's

By George Nassar

Thu, 01/03/2008 - 8:20pm

64% reporting, Obama's gaining. 35% 31% 31%, Obama/Edwards(by a hair)/Clinton.

Huckabee is at 31% and Romney at 23% with 41% of R precincts reporting. Now a four way race for third, Thompson/McCain/Giuliani/Paul. All within 1% of each other.

Huckabee and Obama

By David Gurney

Thu, 01/03/2008 - 8:32pm

I have to preface this by saying that I loathe just about everything Mike Huckabee stands for and that I still want to see Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee.

That being said, I really like seeing a democratic process where Mike Huckabee can win after spending less on advertising in Iowa than Romney spends on sodas for his campaign workers. He won based on his ability to win people with his words and selling them on his ideology. Like him or not, that's closer to the ideal of democracy than we usually see.

I also think that if a guy named Barak Hussein Obama can win in Iowa of all places, his candidacy has got some serious legs. He's young, he's charismatic, and he's got some vision. If he gets the nomination, and I definitely think he can, we've got a real shot at taking back the White House and riding those coat tails to a bigger lead in Congress.

Biden is back down?

By Robin Orlowski

Thu, 01/03/2008 - 8:44pm

I could have sworn he was at 1 percent a short time ago. And Hillary is now at 29 percent?

squeakers for second and third

By George Nassar

Thu, 01/03/2008 - 8:45pm

Wow. Barack Obama spent $9 1/2 million more than any other candidate in Iowa. Clearly it paid off.

Edwards is still holding to second place by single-digit votes; NBC reports that he may have been hurt by the Edwards web site actually giving the wrong voting locations for certain precincts. 85% reporting for the Dems.

Thompson and McCain seem to be pulling away from the rest of the pack for third place among Republicans, with Thompson having a slight edge. 65% reporting.

Second?

By George Nassar

Thu, 01/03/2008 - 9:19pm

I'd love to say that I've got your second place winner, but with 95% reporting, Edwards leads by 12 votes. Not exactly a decisive second place. Guess we'll have to wait for all precincts.

On the Republican side, it seems like Thompson is the likely holder of third place, but McCain is a very close fourth — close enough where that could change.

In the crosstabs, the final number of first-time caucusgoers seems to be 56%, and the total turnout for Democrats was 212,000 — about double the Republican turnout. In an Iowa that went for Bush in 2004, that's a very good sign.

wow

By Josh Berthume

Thu, 01/03/2008 - 9:31pm

this was over very very fast.

And yet it's still going! No

By George Nassar

Thu, 01/03/2008 - 9:40pm

And yet it's still going!

No clear second place on the Dem side, no clear third on the Repub side.

I wish I'd put "Iowa turnout breaks 200,000" in the predictions post. I thought about it, but thought everyone would vote to put me in a looney bin. I only told a couple of people.

Heck, I've got a couple of other crazy predictions that could turn out true. So far, my only mistake was going *with* the CW as far as Republican results go. My bad, clearly. I should know better than to go with the CW. My nutcase predictions have remarkably good track records.

Huckabee's speaking, and Chuck Norris is right behind him. lolz.