Some Quick Campaign Updates
Mon, 03/03/2008 - 11:56am
A few stories of interest and a short report from a Clinton media conference call after the jump.
First, this story in the LA Times about how the Clinton campaign went from inevitable to having do-or-die moments is well worth the read, if only to get an idea about her campaign's landscape:
Those tensions partly explain why Clinton today stands where, just a few months ago, few expected she'd be: struggling to catch up to Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination. If she loses either of the crucial contests Tuesday in Texas and Ohio, Clinton may face calls from senior party officials to end her campaign.
Some polls show her leading in Ohio but tied in Texas; the race in both states is considered close.
Already, some in Clinton's senior staff are pointing fingers over what went wrong, with some of the blame aimed at Clinton herself. As the race unfolded, neither Clinton nor anyone else resolved the internal power struggles that played out with destructive effect and continue to this day.
I think that as an abject lesson in presidential politics, the history of this Democratic primary will be informative in ways we may not even be aware of yet.
The New York Times' Randy Kennedy examines the architecture of each campaign's Texas organization, illustrating the generational divide that separates the campaign's supporters. The vignettes from around the state reinforce my feeling that this could go either way.
And lastly, one of the main points Howard Wolfson and Mark Penn focused on during a media conference call earlier today (other than Senator Clinton's ability to 'be a good steward for this economy') was made by omission. Despite reports about Clinton being pressured to drop out after tomorrow if things don't break for her, the campaign staff gave no indication that that was even a possibility, and Senator Clinton herself is making the case that the extended primary is good for the party. For as much the media is hyping the idea that it will all be over after tomorrow, I think something unexpected and significant would have to happen, that Clinton would have to incur a much more severe loss in Texas than is projected even by polls showing the largest leads for Obama. You may just have to prepare yourself for a campaign that runs through Pennsylvania as its next stop.
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Never tip your hand
By Lorenzo Sadun
Mon, 03/03/2008 - 1:04pm
Of course the Clinton campaign won't entertain the idea of dropping out, since that would undercut any chance of her winning tomorrow. I also wish that the pre-primary calls for her to drop out would stop. Let's hear what the March 4 voters have to say, first!
Wednesday morning is another story. If Clinton wakes up to find the nomination out of reach, then she should withdraw, even if she wins both Ohio and Texas. If she wants to continue into Pennsylvania and beyond, she needs to do it like Edwards ran in 2004: offering an alternative but not attacking. That really would build the party, much as the current campaign has been a godsend to the Texas Democratic Party.
And if she gets double-digit wins in Ohio and Texas and wakes up Wednesday morning with a realistic shot at the nomination, then of course she has the right to keep on fighting. You might even say she has a duty to do so.
No way Clinton is dropping out, nor should she
By unchainthedogs
Mon, 03/03/2008 - 7:54pm
That would be a crazy thing to do at this point considering that it appears she will not lose by the wide margins that she has lost by in the past 11 smaller State primaries/caucuses and being that the looming questions that are now being asked of Obama need more time to "settle." Even if Hillary Clinton loses all States tommorrow by narrow margins this would prove that the "infamous momentum" that the other States have credulously given to Obama has been slowed to a trickle and/or stopped completely. No matter what happens tommorrow, Hillary Clinton is here to stay for a while longer -- perhaps for the next four to eight years. Thanks to the Muslims, NAFTA, Rezko, Canadian Gov't, The Great Debates of 2008, Obama's Black Panther endorsement, misleading mailings, arrogance, and ironically, Obama's oratorical speeches.
The Big Question
By Patrick M McLeod
Mon, 03/03/2008 - 2:15pm
Any chance we'll get a predictions thread up today?
I think Obama will win Texas with about a 2%-4% margin over Clinton. I think Clinton will win Ohio with about a 8%-10% margin over Obama. Obama's going to crunch Clinton in Vermont and Clinton will crush Obama in Rhode Island.
I'm calling a split card between Texas and Ohio in terms of victories but with an Obama lead in delegates when the day is done.
The big question in my mind is: Contest the results in court or not contest the results?
My prediction is that if either campaign contests the results in Texas in court, it will be their death knell in subsequent states. That's a frame that either campaign will gladly use to describe the other.
I think Hillary is a fine senator,
By conor
Mon, 03/03/2008 - 6:52pm
but Obama is far and away the best candidate for president at this moment in our history. Let's just hope the Clintons, by distorting the truth to discredit him, don't turn this "transcendent and transformational political figure" into just another bickering politician. Thusfar he has remained above the fray.