Super Tuesday II Results and Predictions

Tue, 03/04/2008 - 3:46pm

I'm starting to get the impression that Texas' results are going to be full of surprises, but let's make predictions anyways. Get into it after the jump.

Ohio, Democrats: Too Close To Call

Ohio, Republicans: McCain (no number yet)

Vermont, Democrats: Obama (no number yet)

Vermont, Republicans: McCain (no number yet)

I'll start with the predictions

By Josh Berthume

Tue, 03/04/2008 - 4:07pm

Obama wins Vermont.

Clinton wins Rhode Island.

Clinton wins Ohio by 6.

Texas is an even split, with Clinton winning the popular vote by 2-3 and Obama winning on delegates.

This is all based on the anecdotal business and not on, say, exit polls or anything.

Hillary is a fine senator,

By conor

Tue, 03/04/2008 - 5:12pm

but Obama is far and away the best candidate for president at this moment in our history. Let's just hope the Clintons' efforts to discredit him don't turn this transcendent and transformational political figure into just another bickering politician. Thusfar he has remained above the fray.

Here Are Mine

By Patrick M McLeod

Tue, 03/04/2008 - 5:02pm

Obama wins Vermont by more than 10%.
Clinton wins Rhode Island by more than 10%.
Obama wins Texas by less than 5%.
Clinton wins Ohio by less than 10%.

Delegate wise, I think Obama will end up ahead of Clinton for the whole of these four contests, but I don't think we're going to know the details of that until late tomorrow or Thursday (without any legal challenges).

My predictions

By Lorenzo Sadun

Tue, 03/04/2008 - 5:53pm

I've heard hints of exit polls, but here's what I was thinking before that. In the order of poll closings:

Obama wins Vermont by 20+
Clinton wins Ohio by about 12. Nafta/Canada hurts Obama badly, but the early vote is close enough to keep him from getting humiliated.
Obama wins the Texas primary by about 5, splitting the election-day vote about 50-50 and carrying the early vote by 10.
Clinton wins Rhode Island by 5.
Obama wins the Texas caucus by 15.
All told, Obama gains about 10 delegates on Clinton for the night, gets a ton of superdelegates tomorrow, and Clinton withdraws.

Maybe The Cards Are Stacking Up

By Patrick M McLeod

Tue, 03/04/2008 - 6:05pm

If Brokaw's statement this morning about Obama having 50 superdelegates waiting to endorse him after tomorrow and you combine that with Richardson's endorsement, maybe an earlier exit than I expect is probable instead of merely possible.