15 Was The Number

Hey, Congressional Republicans: Surprise! Another one among you is going to retire at the end of this term.

New Jersey Rep. Mike Ferguson has decided to hang it up, and his announcement marks the 15th Republican retirement. Ferguson is a surprise retirement among many others that present the national Republican party with some unique challenges.

The New Jersey GOP delegation has been hit particularly hard, as they now have two open seats to defend. Longtime Congressman Jim Saxton announced recently that he was also retiring, and in a state like New Jersey that leans Democratic, those two seats represent prime opportunities for Democrats to make gains.

My feeling is that these guys aren't amateurs, and they must be seeing some numbers that indicate they would have a very tough time ahead if they decided to stay in it. The Republican leadership in the House is falling apart as the national mood turns more and more against the ideology that won them the House in 1994 and cemented Republican unified government after 2002. The base is splintered and talking about a third-party candidate in the presidential race because it seems like no one can get along. I think the Democratic assertions that this is a sign of low morale among Congressional Republicans is not only correct, but understated.

As Ferguson's retirement was unexpected, Republicans will now be under extreme pressure to produce a candidate that can defend the seat, and some prospects have already turned down the opportunity to run.