Craig to Resign. Probably.

The suspense is over, we think: several sources have it that Idaho Senator Larry Craig will announce today that he will resign effective September 30. However, there may still be a surprise or two in store.

All through yesterday, every Republican you can think of either had disparaging words about the incident or openly called for Craig's ouster. The logic and political calculus of Republicans was simple enough: if Craig were to stay in the Senate, an ethics investigation and the Craig story in general would dominate a seemingly never-ending news cycle through the end of the year. Then Idaho would have a hard primary and the seat would have an uncertain future.

Now, if Craig resigns, the seat will pass to someone appointed by Idaho's Republican governor, who will be a vetted watertight SuperConservative. So Reuters has it that Craig will announce his retirement today, and so do some other sources, but they all seem to be external from the Craig camp itself. Observe, from the Reuters story:

While a news conference was scheduled for Saturday amid widespread expectations that he will resign, the aide cautioned that Craig could surprise everyone and announce he will try to hang on and simply not run for re-election next year.

(snip)

"The state and national parties want him to go. This is what we all want," the aide said. "Everything I hear from the people in Idaho is that the decision has been made. But it is his call. Only Sen. Craig knows what he's going to say."

So the pressure from Republicans all over the country and in Washington must be unbelievable, but the talk might be a little presumptive. It is likely that Craig will resign, but who knows? Maybe he'll be angry enough at the complete and total lack of support he's received from his party to make them suffer for a few more months. And why not? His political career is over. Maybe he's received some legal advice that makes him believe he can fight the charge — and Republican city hall — and make a run for it, despite everything.