The GOP's Bleak House Hopes

Yesterday I told you a little bit about the ongoing battle between House Minority Leader John Boehner and NRCC Chair Tom Cole. The surface story is a fight over staffers, but the underlying truth is one of more than a simple frustration Republicans might feel at suddenly finding themselves in the minority.

You see headlines everyday from bloggers all over proclaiming that the ship is sinking or the wheels are coming off, and those are true, but the truth is worse for Republicans: the money's running out. Politico's John Kraushaar has it that the GOP is not only scrambling to shore up incumbent defense, but now feel as if they lack sufficient means to prevent more losses in November 2008.

Put simply, Republicans lack the money to fight seriously for many of these seats. The NRCC is essentially broke, with more debt than money in the bank. “When you look at what’s going on in the House, the prospects for getting back on track are pretty dim at the moment,” said Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.).

The resignations are a problem, and defending open seats is always more difficult than defending an incumbent. But when your party is embattled so severely everywhere, you have very little money, you have no solid national campaign strategy, and, due to a complete lack of any kind of effective message, your recruitment is down, you have a set of problems that is much more severe than any bloc of resignations could be. And I'm not sure what Boehner thinks will change if he drops the top NRCC staff; anyone new will wake up to the same clumsy Republican Party, wearing the same giant millstone of the last six years.

So, in short, the GOP is in serious trouble, and by their own estimation will lose more seats in the House next year rather than gaining any back.