Things Are Tough All Over (Cornyn Poll Edition)

SurveyUSA has a Texas Senatorial Poll out, and Cornyn turns in another poor showing. Some of the crosstabs reveal a few interesting points. BOR, Senate 2008 Guru, and Markos have all done the driveby status update, but I noticed something a little weird when I looked at the crosstabs.

If you'll notice, Cornyn's approval rating is under 50 in West Texas, Harris County, and East Texas. The only place his approval definitively outpaces his disapproval rating is in North Texas. This doesn't mean a great deal without knowing exactly what the regional delineations are, but the North Texas numbers seem off.

This poll isn't likely voters — it is a sample of 600 adults, which a remarkable 71% of whom believe that global warming is real — and the fact that it is not likely voters makes me believe that when you roll the Dallas County population anchor into this figure, North Texas looks worse for him than the 54 percent approval presented here.

That being said, I think the West Texas numbers are a wash (they represent only 6 percent of the total adults, and the only thing that beats his approval and disapproval (tied at 33 percent) is Not Sure, which rolls up in West Texas at 34 percent. Harris County must be of some concern for Cornyn because it has been trending Democratic in recent years and turnout always bumps in favor of the Dems in and around Houston during presidential years, so 42 / 46 can't sit well.

The East Texas numbers are the inverse of the North Texas numbers: where I think North Texas is probably not as good for Cornyn as this poll shows, I don't think East Texas is as bad as these numbers portend for him. Once you roll in likely voters, I would eyeball his approval rating being closer to 50 percent, if for no other reason than everything is so close in East Texas that even legacy incumbent Democrats have problems hanging on to state House seats. I have nothing to back that up — it is something of an anecdotal poll, if you will.

I think, also, that everyone gets super excited about these numbers for Cornyn without considering that no one is running against him yet. I think a very strong Democrat could drive these numbers down a point or two, and I think a weak Democrat makes them irrelevant, because Cornyn will crush anyone who brings a knife to a gunfight.