2008 New Hampshire Primary Open Thread
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 12:37pm
Josh tells me there's a crowd gathering outside our office clamoring for a place to share their New Hampshire prognostications. I say to him, I give the people what they want. Publish your New Hampshire nuggets of wisdom in the comments at your whim.
EDIT: Early numbers have started to come in for New Hampshire today; we'll be following along in the comments as the results come in.
EDIT: Obama's conceded, and Clinton gets the win. Final numbers: Clinton 39%, Obama 36%, Edwards 17%, Richardson 5%, Kucinich 1%. Gravel didn't register. On the Republican side: McCain 37%, Romney 32%, Huckabee 11%, Giuliani 9%, Paul 8%, Thompson and Hunter 1% each.

Kicking off guesses
By George Nassar
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 12:39pm
Well, I already posted my guesses at the DMN's Trailblazer blog a little while back, so I'm pretty much stuck with them.
My wild guesses — er, carefully crafted calculations:
Democrats:
Obama 38
Clinton 30
Edwards 21
Richardson 6
Republicans:
McCain 32
Romney 26
Huckabee 14
Giuliani 10
Paul 10
Thompson 2
McCain gets hurt by Obama pulling independents; Huck gets better-than-expected turnout from people that just like the guy. Giuliani does a bit better than expected; Paul more so. So does Edwards, picking up some strays from the Clinton camp.
Polling Truthiness
By Patrick M McLeod
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 1:01pm
After bringing all manner of computational power to bear on every number possible using everything from traditional analysis to Bayesian analysis to cutting-edge neural networks, I decided to throw all that out and just go with my sketchily-informed opinions:
Democrats:
Obama 35
Clinton 28
Edwards 25
Richardson 8
Republicans:
McCain 30
Romney 28
Huckabee 16
Paul 11
Giuliani 8
Thompson 1
Obama will out-draw McCain among the Granite State's vaunted independents 2 to 1.
Clearly, a guess
By Josh Berthume
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 1:47pm
Democrats
Obama: 36
Clinton: 31
Edwards: 20
Richardson: 7
----------------
Hart: 2
Gravel: 1
Republicans
McCain: 33
Romney: 30
Huckabee: 11
Paul: 8
Giuliani: 5
Thompson: 2
----------------
Buchanan: 1
I think McCain keeps more independents than it seems like he will, and Romney does better than we might suspect. And Vermin Supreme keep Thompson's numbers down by promising free pizza and beer.
Oh, numbers
By Grace Stevens
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 2:21pm
My Predictions 2008!TM are as follows:
Obamarama 44%
Clintonian 29%
Edwardarific 20%
Richardsonny 7%
McCain 36.999%
Romney 31%
Huckabee 16%
Guiliani 6%
Paul 10%
Thompson .001%
My predictions are based on my inappropriate love of numbers, counting and asking people questions.
Going for the two-fer
By John McClelland
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 2:25pm
I am one for one in my predictions. I called Iowa's Dem top 3 in direct order. So I will give it a shot for New Hampshire, with numbers this time. Here we go:
Democrats:
Obama 37
Clinton 27
Edwards 24
Richardson 4
everyone else gets the scraps
Republicans:
McCain 30
Romney 28
Huckabee 14
Paul 10
Giuliani 10
Thompson 4
again scraps to everyone else
Numbers will be tough to predict in this primary due to the fact everyone, their mama, and some cousins, are filed to run for President.
From Dallas
By Josh Berthume
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 2:33pm
Sam Jones says:
Looking back at these
By Guest
Fri, 05/27/2011 - 1:17am
Looking back at these comments and predictions is pretty funny, you actually got it right though so congrats! lol - Aaron Kocourek
With a little help from my friends
By Betsy Parchem
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 3:38pm
My predictions for the Democratic primary are pretty much the same as everyone else's. I'm more worried about who the Democrat is up against, so I polled the Republicans I know, and here are their predicitons:
Republican #1:
Mc - 32%, Huck - 27%, Rom - 25%, Rudy - 10%, Fred - 4%, Paul - 2%
Repulican #2:
Romney 30%
McCain 27%
Huckabee 23%
Republican #3:
McCain
Huckabee
Romney
So... I don't know what conclusions to make from that.
Special Insight
By Karl Lynch
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 3:01pm
As one of the few people in the room that lived in NH, I feel that my picks will most closely reflect the minds and hearts of the great people of the Granite State.
Obama 55%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 15%
Two fairly worthless cents
By Angela Brewer
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 3:21pm
And the winner is...
Obama 35%
Clinton 32%
Edwards 24%
Richardson 7%
McCain 25%
The Mittster 23%
Huckabees 18%
Rudy 10%
Law and Order Thompson 5%
And on another front, Cowboys over Giants by 6.
If Obama wins tonight, he's
By David Gurney
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 5:12pm
If Obama wins tonight, he's probably going to get the nomination.
If he wins the general, we may have seen the last baby boomer President. They'll be getting a little long in the tooth in four years.
Worth less than 2 cents
By Lorenzo Sadun
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 5:17pm
My predictions:
The good guys:
Obama: 41
Clinton: 29
Edwards: 21
Others: 9
The bad guys:
McCain: 33 (would be more, but the independents are busy voting for Obama)
Romney: 30
Huckabee: 14
Paul: 10
Others: single digits
Turnout, part 2
By Josh Berthume
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 5:33pm
MSNBC is reporting that turnout in Londonderry, New Hampshire is 70%.
You had to be here for it
By Josh Berthume
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 5:35pm
...but George just levied a Sun Myung Snap on me.
I did.
By George Nassar
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 5:48pm
And well deserved. It was a right Moonie dis.
Results starting
By George Nassar
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 7:15pm
So we have around 12% of precincts in, and MSNBC is already calling the Republican race for McCain, who currently has 37% of the vote to Romney's 28%. The Democrats have been a different bag, as both Clinton and Obama have been in the lead as the numbers have crawled up. Clinton's currently slightly up, 38% - 36%.
Huh.
By Josh Berthume
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 7:19pm
I expected the Democratic side to be closer than most people were predicting, but not this close.
Is it the economy?
By Josh Berthume
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 7:21pm
You know, the exit polls say economy is the winner. It is incredibly early to say that Clinton wins on it, but maybe the close proximity has to do with a reflection of that economic concern, an area in which experience (and Bill) is helpful.
Sideways
By Josh Berthume
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 7:50pm
Everything is starting to feel like it could go off the rails. I feel like nobody really knows what's going on. Including me.
Exit poll cross tabs
By Josh Berthume
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 7:57pm
Clinton winning older voters, less affluent voters - with a five point lead at 24% reporting.
Six points. 30-24. Edwards
By George Nassar
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 8:00pm
Six points. 30-24. Edwards at 17%.
Clinton's lead is down to
By George Nassar
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 8:08pm
Clinton's lead is down to 4%, with 30% reporting -- I'd wait until the lead changed more dramatically, but Josh is antsy for details. :-)
McCain's speech
By Josh Berthume
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 8:26pm
McCain's speech was just about the least inspiring thing ever.
I'm sure it would have been
By George Nassar
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 8:50pm
I'm sure it would have been much better if he hadn't read it straight off the page.
No, I lie. It would have simply not been quite as dreadfully bad.
Wes Clark
By Josh Berthume
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 8:54pm
He just inspired me by saying "Hillary Clinton has game."
now *that's* close
By George Nassar
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 8:30pm
2% spread, 43% reporting. It's tightening down quick.
State Nickname Jokes
By Josh Berthume
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 8:35pm
New Hampshire says "We'll decide how to vote on our own. Don't take us for Granite."
63% reporting
By George Nassar
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 9:21pm
Clinton is holding on to her three-point lead, 39%-36%. It's boding very well for Senator Clinton.
Numbers
By Josh Berthume
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 9:31pm
Now we're playing the "votes from neighborhood X could change it" game.
Clinton wins.
By Josh Berthume
Tue, 01/08/2008 - 9:32pm
NBC projects a Clinton win.