Daily News Roundup, 11/20/07: A Shakeup in Iowa

We've known it to be true that Iowa is still more or less up for grabs for some time now, but new polls show that Obama is making progress — and may actually be pulling ahead.

The ordinal measure of the candidates has shifted. What has been Clinton / Obama / Edwards for months has become Obama / Clinton / Edwards. Obama polled at 30 percent among likely caucus-goers, with Clinton garnering 26 percent and Edwards at about 22 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus four percent, so that throws some statistical uncertainty into the mix.

I think what's happening here is that caucus-goers are abandoning the lower strata of candidates and have started to shift up to the top tier, and it appears Obama has benefited from that in the initial transfer. The numbers for Clinton and Edwards look to be about where they've been, and Obama has gained a bit of a bump. As the field starts to thin out in the voters' minds and people start to drift towards the candidates that aren't long shots, several shifts like this are likely to take place and it is the candidates' organization on the ground in Iowa that will allow them to benefit or make them suffer as a result.

Governor Rick Perry decided to show how mindful he is of fiscal responsibility by forcing Tarrant County to have two elections in two weeks in the run-up to Christmas. Two elections have to happen soon: the runoff in for Fort Worth City Council District 9 and the runoff for House District 97.

The Fort Worth City Council had set Dec. 11 as the date for its District 9 runoff more than a month ago. County election officials had asked Perry to schedule a runoff for the House District 97 race on the same day to save taxpayer money and simplify matters for voters, some of whom live in both districts.

Instead of doing that, Perry scheduled the House runoff for December 18, a week after the previously scheduled election and a week closer to Christmas. His office claims it is so voters can learn about the candidates, but unless I'm mistaken, these candidates just ran a race a few weeks ago. Plus, I'm fairly certain that "proximity to Christmas" and "runoff election turnout" have an inverse relationship. This is clearly an attempt by Perry to swing the election in the GOP's favor; the old adage about low turnout helping Republicans didn't become an adage because it is catchy, but rather because it is true.

In more on presidential politics, how about that Fred Thompson guy? He hasn't exactly been setting hearts aflame in his quest for the Republican nomination, and now some GOP Congressman who initially supported him have a little bit of the buyer's remorse. There is an art and a science to picking a candidate to support for President when you yourself are an elected official, and for many House Republicans hoping for a Reagan Reinvention to latch onto, Fred seemed like the ticket to the Promised Land. That idea now seems to be lost:

The disaffected members of team Thompson say he has failed to put to rest whispers that he is unwilling to campaign hard enough to win the presidency.

“He seems to be perpetuating it instead of defeating it,” another dissatisfied Thompson backer said. “I can’t see me bailing on him, but there’s some frustration.”

I have heard many criticisms of presidential candidates over the years, but the one I don't think I've ever heard is that a candidate doesn't seem to care enough to win, and he doesn't care enough about the perception that he doesn't care enough to win to do anything about it. Honestly, who runs for president as some sort of interstitial distraction between other stuff they'd rather be doing? At any rate, Fred isn't doing so well. I don't think it is going to work out for him this time.

If you haven't been keeping up with the whole anti-Mormon push poll thing going on Iowa and New Hampshire, now is a good time to step in and catch up as developments seem to have ceased for the moment. Just recently, phone calls began in those early primary states which are critical of Mormonism as a religion and paint Romney as a draft dodger while positively referencing John McCain's military service, and no one knows who is behind them. The legal saber-rattling has begun, but I'm far more interested in Sam Stein's recent coverage of a prevalent theory that the Romney campaign is responsible. I know, attacking your own campaign seems counterintuitive, but the idea is that maybe Romney's campaign is trying to gain some sympathy by attacking their own candidate's religion. I don't totally buy it, especially when Huckabee would benefit most from a Romney implosion, but it isn't often that presidential politics lend themselves to full-blown conspiracy theories.

Lastly today, have you ever wanted to get access to the internet through your power lines? Well, if you live in Dallas, you're going to have the opportunity to try that out soon. Even having lived through a period of incredible technological advances, it seems like there's a new development every week that might change the world, and I am always pleasantly surprised to see it.