Perry and the Base
Mon, 02/04/2008 - 1:42pm
Over at the Star-Telegram's new PoliTex blog, Jay Root muses on whether Perry's endorsements of Giuliani and McCain will cause more trouble in an already troubled relationship — that between Perry and the conservative base.
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Rubber Meeting The Road
By Patrick M McLeod
Mon, 02/04/2008 - 4:49pm
You know, I still stand by my misplaced yet thoroughly informed sentiment that the social conservatives will line up behind whomever they perceive to be a winner on the Republican side come election time.
Way back last year as dinosaurs roamed the Earth, I thought that the social conservatives would all line up behind Giuliani if he was the nominee simply because they (and particularly their leadership) are politically rational actors and want to hang onto their voting power.
So my use of Giuliani was a bit misplaced...
I think the same basic idea still applies, though. Limbaugh and Coulter and mega church pastors from sea to shining sea can trash The Straight Talk Express all they want, but if Hillary Clinton is our nominee, the movement conservatives will line up behind McCain come election time.
GOP voters as rational actors
By Josh Berthume
Mon, 02/04/2008 - 5:07pm
Sometimes I wonder if, to GOP voters, the expected payoff for voting for a Republican candidate they don't like even if it means that candidate wins is lower than the payoff from not voting at all.
Trademark
By Josh Berthume
Mon, 02/04/2008 - 5:11pm
academic puzzle, copyright 2008
Get Quanty
By Patrick M McLeod
Mon, 02/04/2008 - 5:50pm
I smell a formal model with an experiment in this statement...
Wouldn't begin to know
By Josh Berthume
Mon, 02/04/2008 - 8:45pm
I mean, honestly. Even if you made it like a small-run iterated Prisoner's Dilemma, with payoff (w) and each iterated payoff being worth less (w*.w) because of the perception that future interactions will be worth even less (no future in unfavorable immigration policy, etc), hell... the situational perception makes the primary vote almost worthless and the general election vote worth even less, with a return diminishing even beyond the interactions of the game. Show me a proof for that - for payoffs that continue to degrade even after the game is over.