Where Will Independents Land In '08?

Late last week, I found the results of a new project from the folks at The Washington Post and some wicked smart guys at Harvard on independents in the American electorate. What they found may surprise you.

Outside of the obvious implications for one Mr. Bloomberg, the large number of likely voters nationwide who classify themselves as independents — somewhere around three in ten — will be a mobile, influential bloc in the 2008 election. That most of them are leaning Democrat is a product of the obvious: the war, the war, George Bush, and the war.

What surprised me is what the breakdown of the various types of independents revealed. Disengaged voters, comprising 24% of independents, are frustrated by the process but tend to favor Republicans. For every other type, the Democratic favorability was either higher or, as in the singular case of partisan-free deliberators, tied with Republican favorability. That's three quarters of the independent vote.

Of course that doesn't mean Democrats will automatically enjoy independent allegiance — these are independents we're talking about. However, I would hazard a guess that the other categories of independent are more likely to vote than the Disengaged, since they are, well... disengaged. The same chunk of voters that turned out so decisively for Democrats in 2006 are still largely leaning Democrat in 2008, despite the media musings over Congress' dismal approval ratings. You can read the full report here.