Whither Giuliani's Votes?

Mitt Romney seems to have benefited from the departure of Fred Thompson. Maybe you can credit that to the strength of Mittmentum, or perhaps it follows a logical progression for those conservative voters who find themselves Fredless and without a taste for Huckabee or McCain. As Giuliani inches closer and closer to electoral oblivion, it is worth wondering where his supporters are likely to go in the aftermath.

We've talked about this for a few days now. Patrick is of the opinion that Giuliani and Romney have been too mean to each other for Rudy's backers to fall in line behind Romney. George thinks they will split, with the economically-minded voters going to Romney and the 9/11 D-FENS crowd going to McCain. I feel like, no matter what Rudy and Mitt tell you about how conservative they are, they have track records of being more money-oriented and less about social crusades, so a supporter for either one fits into a slot that McCain's hard-right stances on many issues might sometimes alienate. But is the economy likely to be the chief issue for Giuliani supporters? Weren't they initially attracted to America's Mayor because of his warrior status after 9/11, and as such be more attracted to McCain?

Predictions are a hard dollar in political journalism these days. I wouldn't have been able to predict that Romney would pick up points in Florida after Thompson bailed, thinking for sure that crunchy, crotchety Republicans desperately seeking the Gipper would fall forward to McCain. It is also worth saying that Romney's advances in Florida are probably not merely a result of Thompson's supporters finding a new candidate. It might also have something to do with all the money he's pumping into TV there, or the intangible factor of the Mittmentum (feel it, feel it).

So I think Giuliani flaming out will lead to more support for either McCain or Romney, or both. It doesn't help Huckabee at all. You may see the solidification of McCain and Romney as the joint frontrunners after February 5th, affording them the opportunity to shed any concerns about the other jokers left in the race and to concentrate on each other.