Another Kind Of Endorsement

There's no headline that reads "John Edwards for President" but getting the cover of Newsweek is a substantial chunk of earned media. The story about Edwards within implies a strategic possibility for him to win Iowa as well as a background report on how he got to where he is now.

The strategy is insider-y and a little wonky but does detail the finer points of possibility within Iowa's caucus system: essentially, because he has concentrated on the farther-flung reaches of the state and managed to wrangle 4 years' worth of organizing into a blanket of supporters in most communities, Edwards is still in it:

For months, Edwards has been rounding up support in the state's rural precincts where the front runners have paid less attention. While Obama and Clinton have drawn crowds in the thousands in places like Des Moines and Ames, Edwards has been winning over people in tiny towns like Sac City (population: 2,189). That's important, the strategists say, because under Iowa's arcane caucus rules, a precinct where 25 people show up to vote gets the same number of delegates as a place that packs in 2,500. In other words, even if he loses to Obama and Clinton in the state's bigger cities, he can still win by wrapping up smaller, far-flung precincts that other candidates have ignored. "The bulk of our support is in small and medium counties," says Jennifer O'Malley, Edwards's Iowa state director. O'Malley says Edwards has visited all 99 counties in the state; the campaign has so far trained captains covering 90 percent of all 1,781 precincts.

This implies a few things. First, the Edwards does not have an impossible hill to climb to win Iowa. Second, that Edwards has to catch some breaks — possibly all of them — to make it happen.

The rest of the piece is an interesting biographical snapshot of Edwards that offers more detail than the usual "son of a mill worker" or "populist from humble roots" condensation he is treated to. The most pertinent item about frontrunners and polls comes in the form of the cautionary tale from 2004:

...it's worth keeping in mind just how wrong the media echo chamber can be when it comes to predicting winners and losers. At about this time four years ago, Vermont Gov. Howard Dean was the press-anointed darling who could seemingly do no wrong in Iowa. Dour John Kerry was scorned by reporters as the should-have-been who had blown it and couldn't possibly win. But on caucus night, Kerry wound up the victor—and Dean wound up screaming. Reporters were left to wonder what they had missed.

And there it is. Gephardt and Dean upfront until the rubber hit the road. The time surrounding the Iowa caucus is always comprised of strange days.