The Eye Of The Storm

For our side, the Iowa and Nevada caucuses and the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries are behind us. For the Republicans, the Iowa and Nevada caucuses and the New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina primaries are behind them.

All that remains between where we stand today and the shootout/knockout/sudden death elimination match on Super Tuesday is South Carolina for the Democrats and Florida for the Republicans.

Former presidential candidate and current New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson announced this week that he will not be endorsing any of the Democratic candidates at this time. On the Republican side, former Senator Fred Thompson ended the 21st century's most underwhelming campaign for President by announcing his withdrawal from the race for the Republican nomination.

As it stands right now, the candidates on both sides with a realistic shot of influencing the nomination are as follows: For the Democrats, Senator Hillary Clinton, former Senator John Edwards and Senator Barack Obama. For the Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former Governor Mike Huckabee, Senator John McCain, Representative Ron Paul and former Governor Mitt Romney.

Going into South Carolina, Obama has a solid lead over Clinton with Edwards in third place and enough uncommitted voters to make second/third place interesting if the numbers and trends hold. Going into Florida, Giuliani's once solid lead has evaporated as both McCain and Romney are now in the mix for first. The trendlines are with McCain and Romney and running against Giuliani and Huckabee.

My prediction is that we'll see Obama win South Carolina and Clinton finishing second and Edwards finishing a closer third than we'd expect. I think John Edwards will stay in the race at least through Super Tuesday (I hope). In Florida we'll see McCain edge out Romney with Giuliani finishing a campaign-ending third and Huckabee finishing fourth. I don't see Rudy Giuliani staying in the race until Super Tuesday, ending one of the biggest fizzles in a Presidential campaign in recent memory.