The Immigration Bill Is Undead

Yesterday Senate Republicans prevented the no-confidence vote on Alberto Gonzales from happening. It seems like that would be something resembling a victory for President Bush, but the media doesn't think so.

Since the battle had been building up for so long, I expected that showdown to be a bigger story, but one day later, not many people seem to care about what happened. Maybe that's because the actual vote didn't happen, but I don't think that's it. I think Republicans on a federal level blocked the vote to further stunt Democratic legislative power in the branch they are in control of, rather than as a sign of support for President Bush.

The proof came just minutes ago. Senator Hutchison was on MSNBC discussing the immigration bill, which is the big political story this morning. She was asked how her party distances themselves from Bush should the immigration bill fail. Hutchison replied that Bush needs to listen to Congress, and that he's trying to. That's a political answer if I've ever heard one — essentially she didn't answer the question and implied that Bush needs to understand the reality of where he finds himself, without saying as much — but I think it implies that maybe the GOP leadership is circling the wagons and becoming yet even more wary of exposed weaknesses.

Bush will spend lunchtime talking to Republicans about the legislation and pushing for what he likes about it: namely, the amnesty portion (or maybe even the chance at a little political redemption). The Politico outlines how Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell didn't do much to help Bush last week on the immigration test vote, and essentially asks if he can be blamed for the test vote's failure.

McCain, seemingly in the throes of the realization that he can't separate himself from Bush on many issues, is going against the likely grain of constituent opinion in his border state of Arizona and also supporting the bill and continued negotiations on its provisions, despite last week's failed test vote. I think it is even fair to say that Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Bush were both railroaded by Senate GOP leaders into bailing on General Peter Pace as Chair of the Joint Chiefs, and I would not be the first to say it. Regardless of how you or I feel about him, Pace was not renominated because he may not have been reconfirmed by the Senate, and that can't have been solely Democratic opposition.

So the immigration bill may be kept animated and on its feet for a little while longer, but not because Bush really, really wants it to happen, or as a clever ploy to draw more attention away from the Gonzales thing, even though he kind of had a win yesterday. It will be because leadership in the Senate, both Democratic and Republican, will be looking for a way to turn it into a mutual win; whether they will be able to remains to be seen.