Iowa Thunderdome: Vilsack to Endorse Clinton

While not exactly breaking news, it came out that former Iowa governor Tom Vilsack has plans to officially endorse Senator Hillary Clinton. There are some serious implications to what happens in Iowa during the presidential primary, so this, as we professionals say, is a big deal.

The thinking about how the primaries will bear out is starting to narrow, at the same time that the scope of February 5th is broadening at what seems sometimes to be a state-a-day rate. Most people feel as if whoever has the most money will automatically win the primary; I have undoubtedly been one of them.

However, a salient point was made around the office today that you reach a saturation point with money, and if you have enough to be competitive (and don't need help with name ID), you can keep up. A mega-primary may actually have the opposite effect we've been discussing, in that it may make it impossible for anyone to compete in all the markets, regardless of what money they may have in the bank.

February 5th will be more tactics than strategy, and sooner or later the vast importance of Iowa is going to become common knowledge. If you have a strong showing early, and you win Iowa, especially, then you can overcome any ad-buy shortfalls and ride momentum into the MegaPrimary with the media already calling you the winner. That sort of thing goes a long way towards making you the winner.

If Clinton wins Iowa but Obama has raised more money than her, she'll win a majority on February 5th, and thus the nomination. If Obama wins Iowa despite Vilsack's endorsement of Clinton, no amount of money in the Clinton fund will be able to overcome that blow. If John Edwards wins Iowa on the strength of his organization there and is behind on money and endorsements from Tom Vilsack, that sort of momentum is impossible to stop and hard to contain.