Lampson Faces Uphill Battle in '08

The midterm elections in 2006 signaled an important change in the mood of the American public, heralding the inevitable swing of the pendulum back towards the left. The Democratic wave occurred mainly due to public opinion - a well-executed national campaign 16% as independents. In 2006, Lampson was able to consolidate the Democratic vote and much of the independent vote, and goodplan only helped shore up the sentiment that already existed within the electorate. While the wave did not entirely wash over Texas and most Republicans in the Congressional delegation managed to keep their seats, Democrats had a victory in District 22, in which Nick Lampson seized Tom DeLay's seat and was able to take advantage of what seemed to be rampant GOP electoral incompetence. Now, with the 2008 cycle already underway, we look at how the race in District 22 - and Lampson's chances of a repeat - are shaping up.

Let's start out with the good news. Nick Lampson won the lottery when it comes to elections in 2006. First off, he was facing the most hated politician, at least among Democrats, in probably three decades. Running opposite Tom DeLay allowed Lampson to raise gobs of cash from non-traditional and out of state areas. This also obviously motivated a base and created a volunteer work force in and out of the district. Then, his hated opponent dropped out of the race, and the GOP was not permitted to replace him on the ballot. The Republican candidate had to be written in on ballots all across Texas 22. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs came into the race late and with a substantial section of the constituency not knowing who she really was or what her issues were. Lampson took advantage of all those GOP issues and transformed them into a Democratic victory in a district that has typically been looked at as extremely red.

However, even with all those positive factors, Lampson's bid was too close for comfort. Nick Lampson was on the ballot running against an opponent with a name so hard to remember that the list of misspelled attempts was 28 pages long, yet he only won the district by 14,837 votes, or about 10%. You throw in the 9,009 (or about 6%) that Libertarian candidate Bob Smith garnered and it nbecomes a very close race. In a poll taken before the 2006 election, Zogby canvassed party identification within District 22. 52% of respondents identified themselves as Republicans, 32% as Democrats and fortune managed to suppress the Republican vote.

Congressman Lampson is facing an uphill battle in 2008. His first issue is one of pure math. In 2004, 272,620 people overall voted in the race for the 22nd between Tom DeLay and Richard Morrison. In 2006, only 148,239 people voted. Obviously, the major swing in turnout has to do with 2006 being a non-presidential year. Lampson realistically needs to convince twice as many people to vote for him two years from now than he did in November just to have a fighting chance. He'll need to do this in a district that was affected by a national trend of Republican disinterest and where the Republican candidate wasn't even on the ballot. Most importantly, Lampson will have to run against a candidate that isn't Tom DeLay or his immediate replacement.

That brings us to an interesting question about 2008: who will be the Republican on the ballot for the 22nd? One possibility is Sekula-Gibbs. She managed to make a name for herself in the halls of Congress and in the media, although it was almost all negative press. This story in the Washington Post tells the strange tale of how she got to Congress and then immediately started making a hash of things. The Hill discusses the repercussions of those incidents here, implying that the road upon which she would return to a serious candidacy my be impossibly long.

Sekula-Gibbs is also currently laboring under some cashflow problems - her FEC report shows that she's got $81,810 on hand and is $250,000 in the hole. Lampson's doing better - he's got $197,480 - but that's barely more than seed money.

Others mentioned include Paul Bettencourt, Tax Assessor-Collector for Harris County; David Wallace, Mayor of Sugarland; Kyle Janek and Mike Jackson, state senators from Houston and LaPorte, respectively; former Congressman Steve Stockman; environmental lawyer Tom Campbell; Harris County Judge Robert Eckels; and State Representatives Robert Talton and Charlie Howard. All of the candidates mentioned above have much less baggage then DeLay. Several of them have represented substantial sections of the 22nd's constituency and are household names. Many, including Sugarland mayor David Wallace, have significant personal wealth from which they could draw during a potential run. Wallace and Talton are, in my eyes, worth watching and represent serious challenges to Lampson.

Judge Robert Eckels tells The Texas Blue that he "is not even considering running in 2008," and cites Paul Bettencourt as a strong potential Republican candidate. "Republicans can't take anything for granted," said Eckels. "Nick Lampson is a decent guy, and a hard worker. He'll be doing everything he can to help his constituency, and he's in a better position to do it now that his party is in the majority."

In handicapping the race, Judge Eckels thinks politics in the district is becoming more personal than partisan. "It's going to be a hard race for a Democrat, but not impossible. It'll be competitive, and although it is a district that trends Republican, no one can take it for granted. This last election showed that nothing is impossible."

State Senator Kyle Janek has feelings similar to Judge Eckels about his own candidacy. "Cool job, bad lifestyle," he says. "And I have young kids, so no thanks." As for Lampson's chances, Janek admits incumbency helps, but feels as if you can't know how many points two years of incumbency buys a candidate. "I think on paper it's a Republican seat," he says.

One man who is not averse to the idea of getting into the race is Representative Charlie Howard, of Fort Bend County. "Right now my responsibility is to my district, but I am keeping my options open," he told The Texas Blue from the floor of the State House. "I am qualified, and my seven terms in the Legislature has provided that training for me."

Paul Bettencourt is also considering a run. "County officials are under a resign-to-run rule," said Mr. Bettencourt, "so it isn't a decision you make lightly, but I am taking a serious look at it."

Mr. Bettencourt also shared some of Eckel's feelings on the partisan breakdown of the district. "Whenever political parties stop recognizing the obvious, they lose. Many of the grassroots Republicans have been worried for a long time that party leaders have forgotten the princips that got them there in the first place. There's a lot of debate going on in both parties about where they are respectively going. The primary will be back to basics, and everyone has to figure out what their highest and best use is, and that's what I'm trying to figure out right now."

The other consideration is the presidential ticket. Most national Democratic candidates are going to be a drag on Lampson, and some will spell certain doom. A ticket with Hillary Clinton on it might bring out too many voters in this still-Republican district for Lampson to overcome. Her polarization might hurt Lampson's standing among the large bloc of independents in the district. On the other hand, a strong candidacy from a less polarizing candidate like Edwards or Obama may work to Lampson's advantage.

Without Tom DeLay in the race to bring out the big-dollar Democrats, Lampson is likely to face more fundraising challenges than before. He may still connect with netroots money and even find other sources. However, he will have to do more to get to those dollars. Having DeLay in the race in 2006 opened doors without Lampson even knocking. He'll have to make more calls than he had to last time and work extremely hard to build his war chest. He will want to maintain high cash levels at all times and continuously add to his totals to provide disincentive for a run against him. The best case scenario is that Lampson's large cash on hand totals keeps candidates like Wallace or Janek from wanting to jump in and compete financially. Lampson faces a complex scenario over the next two years: he desperately needs to maintain favor with the netroots and small Democratic donors while walking what will likely be a very moderate line in the House of Representatives. Without doing both, he will be unlikely to gain the support of both groups, losing both money and votes.

Richard Morrison, an environmental lawyer and former Democratic candidate for the seat, thinks Lampson's chances are good. "Nick is working hard, but he'll need to do some things for Fort Bend County. Some in Fort Bend felt ignored by DeLay, and Nick has an opportunity to engage the county commissioners and the county judge in Fort Bend and determine what their needs are."

Kate Bedingfield, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, feels confident in Lampson's abilities. "First and foremost, Texans trust Nick Lampson, and sent him back to Congress. He represents the values of his district. Nick is a prolific fundraiser, who is able to raise the money he needs to run in a tough district. The DCCC is interested in protecting all incumbents, and will be as involved as we need to be to see him return to the House in 2008."

As usual, unknown factors will pop up over the next two years that will greatly affect the outcome of the '08 election. One issue already at hand is his committee assignment. Lampson will be serving on the House Committee on Transportation, having been passed over for the Appropriations Committee in favor of his fellow Texan Ciro Rodriguez. An Appropriations appointment provides the means to bring home the bacon. Some have pointed at this move by Speaker Pelosi as showing the party's choice to protect the "better" swing district. If this is the case, and it certainly is possible, it doesn't help Lampson's chances.

However, Morrison thinks Lampson's appointment to Transportation carries within it a unique opportunity. "Nick being on Transportation could allow him to facilitate commuter rail in Fort Bend, which the county has been looking into. It's a chance for him to get something accomplished on that issue." Lampson's appointments to the relatively complementary Agriculture and Science committees could also provide him with some legislative energy.

The Lampson camp feels that he's already begun the important work of bipartisan representation and producing advantageous developments for the 22nd District, which could overcome the perceived Republican advantage in the race. "Just a few days after returning to Congress, Representative Lampson announced a new contract for RPSEA, headquartered in Sugar Land, which involves a 10-year, $375 million project to manage the research and development of new technology for natural gas and oil exploration and production in coordination with the Department of Energy," said Lampson spokesperson Carrie Chase. "He's really focused on being an independent voice for the district, working hard, and being a member of Congress who is available to his constituents."

When all is said and done, Lampson will have two years representing the 22nd District and showing how he plans on benefiting his constituents. He'll be an incumbent in 2008, and while not fully entrenched, he'll have some of the intrinsic advantages that come with incumbency. This isn't such a heavily Republican district that it makes a repeat impossible. Though he isn't likely to have the type of luck he had in 2006, Lampson can still win the race the old-fashioned way. He will have a significant battle in front of him, but if he does a good job in Congress and runs a smart, diligent campaign, he will have a real chance of getting re-elected.