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The Texas Blue
Advancing Progressive Ideas

One Precious Chance

President Abbas, Prime Minister Olmert, and President Bush met in Annapolis this morning to begin a summit. The goal is peace between Israelis and Palestinians. My first instinct is to roll my eyes and laugh this off. After all, this is clearly an attempt by a lame duck president to find his place in history. President Bush is building his legacy, hoping to have something other than a failed war in Iraq and 9/11 to go into his library.

Moreover, Olmert is on the shakiest of political grounds. His government is dogged by failures in Lebanon, a religious right that is threatening to bolt, and cabinet ministers jockeying for position to succeed him, whether he retires willingly or not. Abbas is on no better grounds. He has no control over Gaza. His government is still mired in corruption scandals and he has almost no way to reign in the militants which threaten to sink any deal before the ink is dry.

Still, I have hope.

The participants have already declared that this is a year-long project. They will not lock themselves away at Camp David and emerge with a deal no one will adhere to. They have a year to argue, shout each other down, and barter details. Right now, everything is on the table. Maybe for the first time, Israel may agree to divide Jerusalem. For the first time, the Palestinian Authority may trade away the right of return (the deal breaker for the last thirty years). For the first time, Israel, a newly formed Palestine, and an international coalition may be formed to ensure security. These are all goals for the summit, and they will all be hard to attain.

Jerusalem is held by Israel, and the Israeli government simply does not have the political support to carve it up. The Western Wall, Judaism's holiest site, is in East Jerusalem. Can a deal be reached where the Wall and the surrounding neighborhood remain in Israeli hands? Can that happen and return the Dome of the Rock Mosque to the Palestinians? They have a year to work out details that can be implemented.

Can Abbas regain support among the Palestinians? Right now, he is unpopular in the West Bank and effectively out of office in Gaza. Hamas runs Gaza and is dangerously popular in the West Bank. Without Hamas, can Abbas hope to defeat the militants that fire hand-held rockets into Israel? Whatever the outcome of the accords, can the hope of peace turn enough support away from Hamas militants to make dealing with Abbas feasible? Will Hamas come to the table if there is a Peace signed?

The peace process is at a fragile moment. One explosion, one bullet, can shatter it for years to come.

Moreover, what is America's role in this?

Well, America is inexorably tied to the region. Our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan are influencing Israel's neighbors and American financial support, both governmental and private, help Israel defend herself against terror, but also encourage expansion into the occupied territories.

The problem is, we're not an honest broker anymore. Our invasion of Iraq has destroyed our reputation in the region. We are perceived by many as being on a crusade against Islam. This could be the biggest stumbling block for peace. Israel will not accept any peace-keeping force without the U.S. and Israel's neighbors, namely Syria and the Hezbollah-controlled regions of Lebanon, may not accept any peace-keeping force in which the U.S. is included.

So, here we are at the beginning of another peace process. Both sides face the same irreconcilable problems. Both sides want opposite things of each other. Yet, both sides have indicated that they might — they just might — be willing to give enough to make two viable independent states.

It will take time, work, and more than a lot of luck.

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