Remember, Remember The 5th Of...February?

A brief version of the British childrens' rhyme that was popularized, if only for a month, here in America last year with the release of the movie version of V for Vendetta goes like this:

Remember, remember the Fifth of November
The Gunpowder, Treason and Plot
I know of no reason the Gunpowder Treason
Should ever be forgot

This rhyme memorializes the conspiracy (involving one Guy Fawkes) to blow up Parliament (with the King inside) on November 5, 1605. Fawkes and the other conspirators were executed.

With California's decision to move its primary date from June 2008 to February 5th, 2008, more than one campaign finance chair has spent a sleepless night or four trying to figure out how to get enough money for his or her candidate's campaign to get a ground game going in one of the nation's largest and most expensive states. Instead of remember the 5th of November, everyone from field organizers to fundraisers to volunteers to candidate surrogates are going to be remembering the 5th of February next year.

In addition to California's 55 electors moving up to the front of the Presidential primary season, Florida (27), Illinois (21), Michigan (17), New York (31), Pennsylvania (21) and Texas (31) are all considering moving their primaries up to some day between South Carolina's primary on January 29th and the February 5th primary date.

The impact of these calendar calisthenics cannot be emphasized enough. These states currently discussing and/or debating in legislative sessions about moving their primaries up to increase their relevance to the nominating process are, for the most part, large states with some of the most expensive media markets in the nation. These are not states where anyone outside of the most well-funded campaigns can even begin to think about getting ground games in place.

I think the first impact that we're going to see as a result of these movements is that the premium on getting out of the gate fast in terms of fundraising is going to become even more of a factor. I would expect to see more than a few of our third tier candidates on both side of the political isle throw in the towel earlier than expected. The second impact that we're going to see is that all this movement is going to create vacuums where the supply of and demand for political information is going to be greater but where campaigns are going to be limited in their ability to satisfy due to the expense of operating in major media markets like L.A., San Francisco, Detroit, Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, Miami, Chicago, Philadelphia and New York City. I think we'll see a level of 527 activity unlike anything we've seen before rushing in to fill this void; I'm not convinced that an uptick in "Swift Boating" is going to be a positive development.

Taking a step back from numbers and impacts, I've seen the pure beauty of how retail politics works in New Hampshire. If you have any love whatsoever for the political process (and I'm guessing if you are reading this, you do), it's a beautiful thing to behold. However, as someone who has long grown tired of casting his primary vote for Presidential races that were already decided by the time Texas's turn came in the calendar, I am excited about the possibility of having a Presidential primary in Texas that will help determine the Democratic nominee for President. It will be quite a change from knowing my vote doesn't matter, and I suspect it will also make quite a difference in first time participation and mobilization, two things that can only help Texas Democrats in the 2008 cycle.