Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

With apologies to The Clash, their song was the first thing that popped into my head last night when I read through one of the Recommended diaries on Daily Kos about this being now or never time for Al Gore to decide whether or not to run for President in 2008. Read on for why my vote would be "never".

I really like the Al Gore that emerged from the political wilderness with a strong message about climate change and the new direction in which our country needs to head after the aimless wandering of two doses of the Bush administration. If this Al Gore had thrown his lot in for the Democratic nomination back in the Spring, I would have been hard-pressed to choose between John Edwards and Al Gore.

I believe it is too late for the Draft Gore movement. I want to be clear that I write this not as someone who dislikes Al Gore, but rather as someone who still remembers the promise and heartache of a late entry candidate into the 2004 Presidential campaign. I was a Draft Clark guy back in '04 and a Clark '04 guy once he entered the race. I was fired up about his entry into a field that I felt needed a candidate of his character and I was ready to chew razor wire and empty out my bank account to do my part.

But as the Iowa caucus (which General Clark skipped) and New Hampshire primary loomed, it became increasingly clear that his entry into the race was simply too late to be competitive. This is what Al Gore will run into if he decides to jump into the race. There are money considerations (even though the rumors persist of a lot of money sitting on the sidelines waiting for him to enter the race) and, even more importantly, logistical considerations.

The logistical considerations are particularly problematic for late entries. Nearly all of the big name surrogates (in-state political figures and partisan opinion makers in Iowa and New Hampshire) are already spoken for, as are most of the experienced in-state campaign management and staff that make or break a candidate's caucus and primary chances. It is very difficult to build an in-state organization, court surrogates and organize at the precinct level when the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary are three months away from this week. To get an idea of the months of training and organizing and field work that go into one of these early primary or caucus states, check out Zack Exley's excellent Huffington Post piece about the Obama campaign's organization for the Super Tuesday primaries (including a shout-out to Marshall Ganz). This piece was brought to my attention by a friend who is a grizzled New Hampshire campaign veteran who knows the long days and frigid nights of this kind of work well.

Even though I think Mr. Gore would make an excellent candidate, three months is simply not enough time to put a viable campaign on the ground in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. He could take the riskier strategy of forgoing both Iowa and New Hampshire to focus on the larger pot of Super Tuesday primaries, but that's a huge gamble. The early primaries and caucuses set the plate for the remainder and bucking that would be, I believe, improbable at best.

On a contrary closing note, I would like to see Mr. Gore do it if for no other reason than because I would like to see our nominating process inoculated against the unrepresentative tyranny of Iowa and New Hampshire.