Shrinking Support for Olmert Makes for an Uncertain Future

Israel may face new elections in the coming months. If Prime Minister Ehud Olmert cannot hold his fragile coalition government together, he will have to call for new elections while dealing with low popularity and a growing scandal over Israel’s performance in the war with Hezbollah last summer.

A Knesset-commissioned report concluded that Israel achieved none of its goals in the war. Hezbollah was not disarmed, nor were two kidnapped Israeli soldiers taken by Hezbollah guerillas returned. The majority of the blame, according to the report, falls on Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz for a lack of vision and decision-making ability.

Calling for both of them to resign is Vice Prime Minister Tzipi Livni, one of the few popular figures within the Olmert government and within the Kadima party. Should Olmert resign as Prime Minister and leader of Kadima, Livni might convince Labour and Shas, a socially conservative Sephardi party, to stay in the coalition and prevent a new round of party and general elections. If she cannot convince Olmert to resign, the fledgling Kadima party, founded less than two years ago, could break apart, leaving Labour as the largest party.

This kind of political wrangling is nothing new in Israeli politics, but it is the first real test for Kadima since its founder, Ariel Sharon, suffered a stroke in January of 2006. It is also the first time they may have to contend with the socially conservative members of their coalition government. Shas, while supportive of Kadima’s unilateral disengagement plan, may balk at the notion of a woman as coalition and government leader in Livni. They could also refuse to form a coalition with the more socially liberal Labour party, should Labour demand more liberal social stances in exchange for staying in government.

If, instead, Olmert refuses to resign and member parties break from the coalition, or a no-confidence vote is called, major shifts in party alignments and power could be in store. The Shas, which represents traditional Middle-Eastern Orthodoxy, could see itself gain seats, as many in the Modern-Orthodox community see Shas as standing against Western influence and secularization. Likud could gain seats as former members that voted for Kadima in the hopes of continuing unilateral disengagement as a plan for peace bolt back to the hard line Likud in favor of a more militaristic opposition to the Palestinian Authority and to Hezbollah guerilla threats in the North. Labour, the current second place party, could see serious losses as their socially liberal stance and pro-peace plan platforms lose popularity as compared to before the war. This all leaves Prime Minister Olmert hanging on to power by a thread, and his government coalition standing on treacherously thin ice, deciding between a new woman Prime Minister whose gender may break the coalition, or holding on to Olmert and his waning popularity and risk losing power in the next general election.

For Americans, this is a time of uncertainty in our relations with Israel. Christian conservatives have forged a strong bond with religious and political Zionists in Israel, represented largely by the Likud party. Should Likud slide further from power, American religious and political support for Zionism could move to newer, more militant Zionist parties waiting in the Israeli political right wing. Further, if Kadima’s former Likud members are dispersed, it could leave economic conservatives in the American Congress with no allies in Israeli politics. American Liberals have allied themselves with Labour Party members in recent years, both economically and politically as Labour has been more open to Israeli/Palestinian peace talks and have forwarded continuation of Israel’s liberal social and welfare policies.

America needs Israel as an ally in the Middle East. Israel's intelligence and military support is necessary for counter-terrorism activities. With a real threat of terrorism coming from militant groups in the Middle East, their support is vital to the safety of Americans both here and abroad. This support could be undermined, however, as the American left shares little ideologically with the emerging religiously conservative Shas party and has had historic ideological problems with the Zionist Likud party. Further, should Israeli politics take a rightward shift in the near future, America could face an increasingly icy relationship over any renewed expansion into the West Bank or Gaza. While there is dispute over the growth of current settlements, American liberalism would likely be vocal if there is a return to Gaza or new settlements are established in the West Bank. While Kadima’s policy of unilateral withdrawal and the building of the security fence in the West Bank has its detractors in America, especially on the left, Labour may not be able to assemble a government should the public once again favor expansion as a means of national defense. This leaves the American left with no clear allies with a direct path to power. Kadima’s unilateral withdrawal policy may be the best path that is realistically on the table for the immediate future toward peace in the region and increased rights for Palestinians.

With Olmert losing ground politically, and Shas threatening to break the coalition should Olmert be replaced by Livni, Israeli politics and American relations with Israel face an uncertain future.