State of the Union: The Prequel

After watching the President's address on the Iraq War a couple of weeks ago, I would imagine most folks are expecting a more-of-the-same performance with the State of the Union address tonight. But the pre-SOTU press briefing put out by the White House points to a couple of potential surprises this evening which just may make it worth watching.

None of these surprises are with the situation in the Middle East, of course. National Security Advisor Steve Hadley almost eased my mind when he said that the President was "not going to replow that ground" of his reasons for escalation in Iraq - I really don't want to hear that again - but he continued by explaining that instead, he would talk about the consequences of failure in Iraq. "He will make the point that it will strengthen extremists and terrorists, potentially give them safe havens from which to attack neighbors and also give them the capability to plan against targets here in the United States." Boy, I can't wait. Because I haven't heard this before. Oh, wait...

But Joel Kaplan's brief on the domestic side of the speech seemed a bit more interesting. There are three economic reforms which the President will "discuss very briefly," all apparently based on the premise that we've seen "strong economic growth," and we're in an "improved budget position." Improved over what, I'm not sure. I'll look up some numbers after the speech. I'm sure the Bush speechwriters will too, to properly spin them for his remarks on the state of the economy next week. The three are: an opportunity to balance the budget within five years (looks like the Republicans are planning for the 2012 election already - I wonder whose fault that's going to be if that doesn't come to fruition?), Congressional reform of earmarks (sounds familiar), and "address[ing]... Medicare, Medicaid, and in particular, the opportunity to save Social Security."

He will also address health care, with proposals you've probably already heard about - tax cuts for the individually insured, and federal funding for state programs that provide access to private health insurance. He'll propose an energy plan to reduce gasoline usage by 20 percent in 10 years, which considering that foreign oil now makes up 65% of our usage, strikes me as too little too late. But that's OK, because he's got another plan that will also help lower that percentage - "step[ping] up our production of domestic oil" and doubling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. He'll ask for the "very successful" No Child Left Behind Act to be renewed, and will call for doubling the number of Border Patrol and the establishment of a temporary worker program and some effort at assimilation.

I'll be liveblogging the SOTU, if only to help out those playing Kos's SOTU Games. But I think some of what the President will have to say, and Congress' reaction, may prove to be very interesting.