The Third Primary

We've talked about the actual primary elections quite a bit, and we even directed you to Time Magazine's examination of the Invisible Primary. We've mentioned the third primary tacitly but not directly — the Money Primary.

In an exercise similar to the lowering of expectations of each candidate's debate performance by his or her own campaign, everyone is trying to lower their own fundraising projections and raise everyone else's. John Edwards, though, is keeping mum about his own coffers.

Hillary Clinton has had a hard time keeping expectations down about her epic finance base, and yet both she and Barack Obama have complained that their day jobs are holding them back, due both to time commitments and to ethics rules requiring them to pay more for plane trips than non-Senate candidates.

Speaking strictly in terms of the Money Primary, it seems likely that Clinton will win. Obama's relative lack of organization may dampen his star power enough to translate into a slower finance start than others are anticipating. It is worth mentioning, though, that Edwards surprised everyone by winning the Money Primary in 2004 — the man knows how to raise money, and is sufficiently connected to raise a great deal of it.

I still think, in my quiet moments, that the greatest danger to Clinton and Obama is Edwards As Outsider, talking about his plans and staying out of the big media fight for now while The Two pummel each other. If Edwards pulls off another surprise and manages to come in first in this cycle's Money Primary (or probably even if he comes in second), the reordering of the field will have massive implications.