What's The Matter With McCain?

John McCain's campaign has been running a rough road. Media coverage has been steadily souring since he made the same supposed verbal gaffe Obama did a few weeks ago, and these days, for some reason I can't seem to quantify, everyone feels like it looks hopeless for him in 2008. I'm telling you now though — crowning Giuliani (or Romney, or anyone) as the presumptive McCain killer before anyone has really spent any money against anyone else is folly. McCain will be the Republican nominee, and if it isn't him, he's going to have to screw up far more spectacularly than he has now.

We haven't talked about it yet, but Obama and McCain both stated that military lives in Iraq are being 'wasted,' and they both ended up apologizing for it. There's been an awful lot of apologizing going on, from that to McCain taking it upon himself to apologize for the Walter Reed scandal. Outside of what may be said about politicians and apologies, it seems as if his boat has been rudderless for a few months now.

John McCain has been in the public eye since the 2000 election cycle. The media has been reporting about his calculations with stories similar to this for what seems like forever. He's been playing to the established parts of the Right Republican base for well over two years, making hugs and hi-fives with the likes of Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson for several months until lightening up a little — but not before tons of stories ran about how transparent the move was.

There have been other issues with the campaign. Just this Wednesday, former New York Senator Alfonse D'Amato denied endorsing McCain, as one of the candidate's aides claimed. There are rumors that the Letterman announcement was way off the reservation and a severe departure from the campaign plan and prompted several campaign staffers to resign. Tales of the campaign's overall demise have been appearing for weeks. He's even getting trouble from a natural constituency group, as the guys behind Vietnam Veterans Against John Kerry are reforming in McCain's honor.

McCain's current difficulties do not stem entirely from his steady support for the war, although that doesn't help him. Neither do they stem from the revelation that he gets all of his foreign policy advice from Henry Kissinger — that's like getting guerrilla marketing ideas from Adult Swim. None of these are enough to kill a presidential campaign, though. I think what's killing him right now is that he is essentially John McCain.

He isn't new to most of the country, like former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is. He's not as shiny as Giuliani is currently, as inexplicable as that may be. He spent a while painting himself as the Republican to which George Bush had to pass the baton, and now stock in the Bush administration can't get much lower, or be received more negatively. Even if McCain wanted to make himself totally distinct from Bush now, it would be difficult because of the war — even if McCain is not Bush, they agree on the most politically poisonous issue in the game.

After saying all that, how can I still say he's the most likely to attain the GOP nomination? I think it will come down to the same thing presidential politics usually come down to — money and power. The big money news at the end of last week contained nothing negative about McCain's fundraising efforts, and everyone assumes he'll be in the top two out of the GOP. That means he should clear $20 million in the first quarter and might get to $25 million. If his press coverage is this bad and his staff is bailing out like even the Republican rags are reporting and yet he still breaks $20 million, what does that tell you? He isn't getting it all from his bus tour.

As for power, McCain's got a Senate career and almost an entire decade in the national political spotlight to draw on. He's got a nationwide network that is deep and seasoned. And, lest you forget, he's probably going to break $20 million in the first quarter. People have long been wary of Romney as a shark who will bite at the first opportunity, and Giuliani is America's Mayor and all, but his personal life and his background are such a mess it won't matter.

So unless something magical happens (or at the very least, something tragical), McCain is the guy. Not Romney, not Giuliani, not Hagel, and certainly not Brownback, who is just barely not crazy. As for what's wrong with McCain, his campaign and his media coverage, well... I would look for the tenor and the tone of the coverage to change shortly after first quarter FEC reports are filed.