Will Tomorrow Be More Interesting Than Tonight?

The Obama campaign is telling us to look at the math and the Clinton campaign is throwing perception through a number of prisms, not the least of which is the kitchen sink you've heard so much about, including Rezko, NAFTA, and the 3 AM ad, along with the argument that big states are an important indicator. If the campaign continues, can Obama withstand 7 weeks of the kitchen sink between now and Pennsylvania?

If Clinton wins Ohio and Texas tonight (and we don't know that she will), the message that is likely to come out tomorrow is that Clinton's split campaign worked. That Clinton's plan of the last ten days, wherein she went on SNL and the Daily Show and played to regular, middle America while at the same time engaging in an all-out media war against Obama on a number of the aforementioned issues was effective and that it effectively blunted his momentum.

I still think that this campaign is not nearly as bloody as it could be, and Pat Buchanan agrees with me, so I feel confident on that score. The items from the Clinton campaign on NAFTA and Rezko are pretty moderate fare but the press has engaged them and examined them. I don't believe that those issues slowed Obama down — in two states where he was once down by 20 points, for it to be as close as it is is a remarkable display of movement on his campaign's part.

But the Clinton campaign and the media both anointed Obama as the front runner and managed expectations to the hilt, and so you now have the perception that if Obama doesn't win in the those two states where he was once down by twenty points, his campaign is off the rails. Even though I don't believe Rezko or NAFTA will be the explanatory factors if Clinton wins in both states, the Clinton campaign will smoothly transition to making the case that those issues stopped Obama, and by the way, what else is there to find out?

Regardless of the result, the message management of the Clinton campaign in the last ten days has been superb, especially when you consider that the conversation they wanted to have is the one they got, even with Mark Penn and everyone else in the campaign being at open war in the press. The question remaining now is whether it buys them a ticket to Pennsylvania.

Of course, if what I have heard about Obama's ground game in Texas today proves out and he runs away with the Lone Star State, the point is moot. If that happens and he picks up 50 superdelegates in the morning like the rumors say he will, it is beyond moot. The math and the superdelegates will be the story and Clinton will be looking down the barrel of protracted court battles over Michigan and Florida (and possibly Texas) in order for her to catch up, and the picture will be very grim indeed.