The Congressional Race in CD10 (Part III)

Both Larry Joe Doherty and Dan Grant claim to be the strongest candidate to face Michael McCaul in November. Who's right?

The argument for Grant centers on his time in Iraq. To hear Grant's supporters tell it, the key to a Democratic victory in a GOP-leaning district is rising anger over the mess in Iraq. Having been there, having been shot at, Grant has the credentials to blast McCaul's support for the war in a way that moderates and even conservatives will respect. McCaul will still call him a liberal defeatist, but the charge won't stick to Grant the way it might to Doherty.

But what if things go better in Iraq, blunting this issue for Democrats? Or what if they get so much worse that withdrawal is a foregone conclusion? Maybe the key issues are economic, with stagnating wages and rising costs for health care and gasoline topping the list. Democrats do need a lot of voter anger to win in CD10, but the government's incompetence, especially after Katrina, provide plenty of domestic reasons to be angry. If Iraq isn't the main issue, Grant's advantage disappears.

The argument for Doherty centers on geography and style. The eastern half of CD10 is very conservative, and Democrats have to minimize their losses there in order to win overall. Who plays better in the rural counties: an older man with Houston and Brenham roots, who looks and sounds like a Real Texan, or an Austin-based kid with ties to the Eastern Elite?

There's some truth to that, but the situation is a lot subtler. The district breaks down into four regions.

By voting population, about 25% of the district is in central Austin. This area is solidly Democratic and is serviced by an effective Coordinated Campaign. Austinites generally value ideology over geography -- former Austin mayor Carol Strayhorn got negligible support from Travis County in the gubernatorial election. Although Grant has a local-boy advantage over Doherty, either candidate will carry this area handily.

The north Austin suburbs (essentially HD50, represented by Democrat Mark Strama) are about 20% of the district. This is a swing area, but Strama has done an amazing job of making it more Democratic. Doherty's good-ol'-boy persona does not play well in the suburbs, while a young, clean-cut face with Austin roots does. Big advantage to Grant.

The rural middle of the district (parts of Bastrop and Burleson counties and all of Lee, Washington, Austin and Waller counties) is also about 20% of the vote. Doherty's personality and Brenham connections give him a very big advantage here.

Harris County is about 35% of the district, and is where I think this election will be won or lost. If we can avoid losing by a landslide there, we will win overall. This area is exurban sprawl, making retail politics very difficult. I don't think that either candidate's background is very helpful. I'd give a small advantage to Doherty because of his Houston roots, although this area HAS elected a young, clean-cut Austin-based city slicker before -- McCaul himself. Whoever can raise the most money for TV will do the best here.

As for money, both candidates have been raking in the dough in large and almost identical amounts (not counting Doherty's self-financing), they both claim to have prospects for ramping up their fundraising, and they both hint that the other is working from a narrow base (lawyer friends for Doherty, family connections for Grant) that will soon be tapped out. I have no reason to believe the last bit about either of them. By Democratic standards, they both are fundraising juggernauts.

Another argument for Doherty is name recognition. "Texas Justice" ran for many years, and is still seen in reruns. It was especially popular among blacks and Hispanics, and on the campaign trail Doherty is frequently greeted as "Judge". But TV exposure cuts both ways. Daytime television is not exactly well-respected, and although the role of TV judge gives Doherty gravitas in some quarters, clips from Texas Justice could be used to make Doherty look like a clown in others.

The bottom line is that, on paper, there's not a whole lot to say that either candidate is stronger than then other. The Iraq connection may or may not help Grant, Texas Justice may or may not help Doherty, and geography is only a small help to Doherty. A big plus for Doherty in the rural counties versus a big plus for Grant in the Austin suburbs. A small plus for Doherty in Harris County versus a small plus for Grant in central Austin.

That doesn't mean that the candidates are equally electable. It does mean that political skill, and not paper credentials, is what will tip the balance. I expect the primary campaign to make very clear which candidate can better connect with activists, the press, donors, and above all, voters. Whoever does the better job this winter will be the stronger candidate for the fall.

That doesn't necessarily mean the primary winner. It may happen that one candidate will out-campaign the other and still lose. If so, we'll pay the price in November.

[The usual disclaimer: I've endorsed Grant elsewhere but am trying hard to keep this blog fair.]