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The Texas Blue
Advancing Progressive Ideas

Lorenzo Sadun's blog

Making Sense of the National Polls

National polling numbers are all over the place right now, from Pew (which have Obama up by 14) to AP (Obama by 1). Their raw numbers, however, aren't all that far apart. The major difference between the polls is in their methodology.

Delegate Numbers

Before Pennsylvania, Obama was ahead by about 164 pledged delegates and 140 total delegates, with 562 delegates left to be voted on. It looks like Clinton gained 12 delegates in Pennsylvania, trimming Obama's lead to 152 pledged delegates and 128 total delegates, with 404 delegates left to be voted on. There are also 308 still-undecided superdelegates. Almost half (187) of the remaining pledged delegates will be decided in 2 weeks, in North Carolina (115) and Indiana (72).

The Superdelegates That Didn't Bark

Most primaries are followed by a cascade of endorsements and superdelegate commitments. These usually go to the winner, although Obama has also used big endorsements (Kerry, Kennedy) to blunt the impact of a loss. So why did nothing happen on Wednesday? As far as I can tell, not a single superdelegate committed to either side.

Huckabee's Chances

Now that Romney's out, what are Huckabee's chances of slowing McCain down? No chance in the long run, but pretty good in the short term.

Spinning Super Tuesday's Results

What a confusing picture! Obama won more states than I expected, 13 or 14 out of 22, most of them by huge margins (20%+, with some as much as 60%), but Clinton won most of the big states by solid margins (10-20%). The squeakers were CT and MO, both of which went to Obama, and NM, which is still too close to call. You can count on both sides claiming overall victory.

Stimulus Package Doesn't Add Up

Like most people, my first reaction on reading about the economic stimulus package was, "What's in it for me?" And the answer is, actually, a lot. I'm married, pay taxes, and have three kids at home, so the announced plan would give me $2100. Not bad, right?

Actually, it is bad.

The Congressional Race in CD10, Part IV: Handicapping the Primary

Last time I said that neither Larry Joe Doherty nor Dan Grant is substantially more electable than the other in November. Their general election advantages pretty much balance out, at least on paper. But it's much harder to tell how March may turn out.

Huckabee and the GOP Coalition

Mike Huckabee's win in Iowa means the end of the Republican coalition of religious conservatives, business interests and security hawks.

The Congressional Race in CD10 (Part III)

Both Larry Joe Doherty and Dan Grant claim to be the strongest candidate to face Michael McCaul in November. Who's right?

The Congressional Race in CD10 (Part II)

As promised, here is a profile of the two declared Democratic candidates for Congress in CD10, Larry Joe Doherty ( and Dan Grant (

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