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The Texas Blue
Advancing Progressive Ideas

Making Sense of the National Polls

National polling numbers are all over the place right now, from Pew (which have Obama up by 14) to AP (Obama by 1). Their raw numbers, however, aren't all that far apart. The major difference between the polls is in their methodology.

Almost everybody agrees that Obama is ahead by approximately 10 points among registered voters. Even AP has him up by 9. Since Republicans have usually turned out in higher numbers than Democrats in the past decade or so, you'd expect Obama's lead among "likely voters" to be smaller. But by how much?

Among pollsters who rely mostly on voters' self-identification and assume a large turnout, Obama's lead among likely voters is only about 1% less than his lead among registered voters. But the gap is more like 5 points among pollsters who rely on historical data.

If turnout follows recent historical patterns, then Obama is only up by 4 to 5 points. If turnout is high, especially among youth and African Americans, then we're looking at a blowout. It does no good to just hope that the second scenario is right — we've got to keep working to make it happen.

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