The Congressional Race in CD10, Part IV: Handicapping the Primary

Last time I said that neither Larry Joe Doherty nor Dan Grant is substantially more electable than the other in November. Their general election advantages pretty much balance out, at least on paper. But it's much harder to tell how March may turn out.

In the primary, geography heavily favors Grant. Although Travis County is only 45% of the population of the district, Travis contributed 62% of the votes in the 2006 Democratic congressional primary. To win the primary, Doherty will have to beat Grant in his back yard, or at least hold him close enough for the rural counties to tip the balance.

But there are a number of other factors that come into play in a successful campaign. The winning candidate will have to get big name endorsements, win in the blogosphere, impress the Austin area clubs, manage the press, raise money, and run better ads.

On endorsements, Doherty got off to a very good start, with Barbara Radnofsky and Richard Morrison in his corner. Recently, Grant countered with the endorsements of the last two Democratic candidates in CD10: Ted Ankrum and me. I expect the biggest Austin-area names, like Lloyd Doggett, Kirk Watson, and Mark Strama, to remain neutral.

Grant seems to be winning the blogosphere. There was an online poll at the Burnt Orange Report on CD 10 which Grant won 77%-23%. This jibes with most of the online content I've seen, which tends to favor Grant.

Both candidates are actively courting the Austin-area activists, appearing at every political event you can think of. I think that Grant's ahead as far as activist support goes, but nothing is settled. West Austin Democrats was divided and the club voted not to endorse. Latinos for Texas endorsed Grant. Many other clubs are holding their endorsement meetings in the second half of January. The picture should become a lot clearer very soon.

The Austin American-Statesman has been very kind to Grant. There was a puff piece on him before he even announced for the race, and the paper has been quick to print his op-ed submissions. That doesn't guarantee that they'll endorse Grant, but I'd be very surprised if they didn't.

Fortunately for Doherty, the Austin Chronicle (the weekly alternative newspaper) carries a lot of weight with Democratic primary voters, and they're a contrary bunch who love contradicting the Statesman! I haven't spoken with their staff lately, and won't make any guesses about their endorsement.

The Brenham Banner-Press doesn't endorse, but they've been nice to Doherty with their news coverage. The Houston Chronicle does endorse, and I have no idea which candidate they'll favor, but they probably will ignore this race in their news, just as they ignored Ankrum.

As I've said before, both candidates are impressive fundraisers. As of September 30, Doherty had raised $128,876 from others, plus $100,000 of his own money, while Grant had raised $118,112. Doherty is informally claiming a very successful 4th quarter, with over $150,000 raised. No word yet on how much of that is from Doherty himself, or on how well Grant has done. Earlier this year, when thinking about running again, Ted Ankrum set a goal of raising $50,000 by June 30 and $100,000 by the end of 2007. He dropped out in part because he wasn't going to get there. Both Doherty and Grant have blown past Ankrum's targets and show no signs of stopping. It will be interesting to compare their year-end FEC filings, which should be available in February.

Grant started the race with a big geographic advantage. The early campaign has been mixed, with split endorsements, Grant doing better with the blogosphere, Grant seeming to do better with local activists, and Doherty doing somewhat better at fundraising. Right now it looks like Grant is probably holding onto his initial lead, but all that could change between now and the election.