Daily News Roundup, 1/8/08: (Very) Early Voting Has Begun

The first primary votes are being cast in New Hampshire. Primary Day in the Granite State has been underway since last night at midnight, when the citizens of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, New Hampshire — both towns with populations totaling less than 100 people — cast their votes.

The results? Early wins for McCain and Obama. The predictive power of these towns, though, is questionable, and the media wants you to know that:

In Hart's Location, Obama received 9 votes, Hillary Rodham Clinton 3 and John Edwards 1. On the Republican side, McCain received 6 votes, Mike Huckabee 5, Ron Paul 4 and Mitt Romney 1.

In Dixville Notch, Obama got 7 votes, Edwards 2 and Bill Richardson 1. Among Republicans, McCain got 4 votes, Romney 2 and Rudy Giuliani 1.

Although this year's results were in line with the latest pre-election polls, neither town is known for foreshadowing the winners statewide on any consistent basis. For example, Wesley Clark, the retired Army general, won 14 of the 31 votes cast in the last Democratic primary in 2004.

I think there is one predictive trend here that shouldn't be overlooked — it is probably a safe bet that Giuliani will manage somewhere between 0 and 1 votes per city, and be beaten by Ron Paul. And why not? Half-bright candidates like Giuliani seem removed from the process, while Ron Paul supporters march the snowy streets of New Hampshire chanting anti-Fox News slogans and giving chase to Sean Hannity. This could be an unfair comparison, though. Giuliani is mounting a late state strategy, so perhaps his roving gangs of Giuliani Warriors will hit the streets in Florida, heckling news anchors and waving signs and then cheering for themselves, and then putting the video on YouTube.

Heckling seems to be in vogue in New Hampshire these days. Some radio show geniuses disrupted a Clinton event in Salem with an old sexist saw about ironing shirts, replete with chants and signs. Apparently one of the pair has a MySpace page with The Evidence:

Update: Adolfo apparently has a MySpace page that says he is a Republican who doesn’t do drugs or have a girlfriend, and calls himself “Captain Fun.”

Hmm. Indeed.

At any rate, signs are good for high turnout in New Hampshire, at least on the weather front. The temperature in New Hampshire isn't too far from what they are here, in the 50's and 60's. A record turnout is in the making, and all of the stories leading up to today may make for some exciting results. Both Clinton and Romney are playing a bit at the expectation game, saying second place finishes will count as victories in New Hampshire.

There is also the argument these days that while New Hampshire has signaled the end of the race in some elections, that won't be the case this year. Clinton and Edwards have both said they are in it for the long haul; Clinton has everything you know her to have, and (perhaps most importantly) she's got money. It is probably also bad form to count Edwards out — if he's staying in, he'll figure out a way to keep his message up and at them, despite being at a financial disadvantage to Clinton and Obama.

Also, how about John McCain? I think it is telling that a McCain victory in New Hampshire combined with Huckabee's Iowa win gives the Republican Party two candidates with two presidential nominating contest wins that, each in their own way, fly in the face of what one might consider to be the orthodox GOP. I think the fight in Michigan between McCain and Romney will be interesting, and if Romney doesn't stand up to McCain there, he may not be able to stand up at all in the days after.

And Huckabee is showing that he knows how to go after the Republican base in lieu of tough talk on taxes. Now he's promising the Minutemen that he will do away with birthright citizenship. So for any of you out there that think Huckabee is an aw-shucks charming guy, don't forget what he really is.

So, at any rate, New Hampshire happens today. Watch your news and read your blogs and observe as the democratic process carries on. And stay tuned — we may be just getting started.