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Daily News Roundup, 1/9/08: Who Won In New Hampshire?

Anyone who's been paying attention to news reporting on New Hampshire could say the state's Democratic primary was effectively over before it started. All public polls had indicated that Obama's lead there was still widening even on the morning of the primary. Not to mention that Obama's internal polling numbers had him winning by 11 percent, and Clinton's had him winning by 12.

So, of course, Hillary Clinton won the New Hampshire primary, 39 percent to 36 percent. Wait a minute — did I just say that?

I was asked yesterday morning, "what happens if Hillary Clinton wins?" I answered that it seemed pretty unlikely at the time, and that if she won the most likely reaction is that every news outlet and every pundit in America throws up his or her hands and says, "OK, you caught me — I'm just doing astrology here." And indeed, the most valuable lesson from the surprising New Hampshire results is that Yogi Berra is smarter than any of us: it ain't over 'til it's over.

But hey, let's be honest — that's not nearly enough analysis for us. We all want to know exactly what happened in New Hampshire that blew right by everyone's radar. Jonathan Alter at Newsweek takes a stab at it, and points not only to New Hampshire women turning out in favor of Hillary by a significant margin (which has been covered fairly thoroughly in post-election analysis), and to Clinton's "Muskie moment" where she choked up while talking about her candidacy and what it means to her, but to the possibility that male independents felt that McCain, the other darling of independents, needed more help than Obama did.

And indeed, McCain won the Republican primary, which was a much less surprising outcome. The win opens the Republican nomination wide — with Huckabee likely to maintain his lead in South Carolina, and another McCain/Romney faceoff pending in Michigan, it almost seems like Rudy Giuliani may luck out on his strategy to wait all the early states out and compete in Florida on January 29 — a strategy that was fairly universally agreed to not even be competitive unless there is serious doubt as to who the frontrunner is by that point.

In comparison, many are saying that Hillary's win basically gives everyone on the Democratic side enough breathing room to advance to the barrage of February 5 contests, which Clinton would seem to have an inherent advantage in due to the likelihood of high turnout from identified Democrats, a demographic which she tends to outperform Obama in.

The Politico chose today to step away from the election results for a bit and, in the spirit of the many comebacks we've seen, take a look at whether the mainstream media can come back from the blow to their credibility that came from touting Obama's impending double-digit victory in New Hampshire. It's a bit amusing to see how the Politico distances themselves from the mainstream in a fairly negative piece about over-the-top news reporting when they tend to be some of the most eager to engage in it themselves, but hey — I don't expect introspection to be a popular pastime in too many newsrooms these days.

And to quickly touch on some local news in a primary-heavy news cycle, Harris County District Attorney Chuck Rosenthal seems to be getting the raw end of the internets. After the recent revelation of emails implying an inappropriate relationship with his executive secretary, another 730 emails of his have been released, containing racist or sexually explicit content, or — less offensive but much more legally significant — discussing his re-election with political consultants and professionals, discussions which "in the past have led to charges of official misconduct, or theft by a public official," according to the Chronicle. The Harris County GOP has once again renewed calls for his resignation, which he still shows no sign of giving. That's yet more red meat for Harris County Democrats to jump on come the '08 election.

Bunch of Libras!

I was asked yesterday morning, "what happens if Hillary Clinton wins?" I answered that it seemed pretty unlikely at the time, and that if she won the most likely reaction is that every news outlet and every pundit in America throws up his or her hands and says, "OK, you caught me — I'm just doing astrology here." And indeed, the most valuable lesson from the surprising New Hampshire results is that Yogi Berra is smarter than any of us: it ain't over 'til it's over.

That's so disrespectful to Astrologers. :(

My apologies to any offended

My apologies to any offended astrologers out there. But only the ones that vote Democratic.

Thank You! Thank You! I'll Be Here All Week...

I guess we can leave out Nancy Reagan's astrologer.

Oh yes I did! I went there!

You went there like DeGrassi.

You went there like DeGrassi.

Surprised?

Another look at the numbers, and an interesting blog to boot.

http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2008/01/polling-errors-in-new-ha...

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