Demographics and Party Switchers

For all you number crunchers out there, here are some items of interest courtesy of Leland Beatty. If you like demographic breakdowns and early vote party switcher analysis, check after the jump for both.

First, the demographic breakdown of the early vote in Dallas, Travis, Harris, and Hidalgo counties, available in PDF form. Leland says that the African Americans are underreported in the Harris County breakdown by a longs hot and that they more likely make up about 30 percent of the total vote, and that in this case the data is not accurate, with No Ethnicity Reported, er, over-reported.

Dallas Early Vote Demographics

Travis Early Vote Demographics

Harris Early Vote Demographics

Hidalgo Early Vote Demographics

Also in PDF (and ready for getting speculation engines fired up) is this information about Republican primary voters that switched to voting Democratic in early vote, in Travis, Dallas, and Harris counties. Switchers comprised 7-10 percent of the early voters in these counties, and more than 90% of the switchers were over forty. For these purposes, a voter counted as a Republican primary voter if they'd voted in a Republican priimary since 1992. Leland says that often there are about 5 percent of early voters that migrate from Republican to Democrat, but that in this case, the percentage either doubled or almost doubled in a population that is hugely increased from usual levels.

Dallas Switcher Report

Travis Switcher Report

Harris Switcher Report

So, when the dust settles, we will not only have to figure out what the migration possibilities are for November and where those persuadable voters are, but also a huge number of new Democratic primary voters to get out.