A Discrepancy
Fri, 03/28/2008 - 4:30pm
This is all anecdotal, but every Clinton delegate I know has gotten several phone calls (3-5 or more) this week about the convention, emails about the convention, and a few mail pieces. Every Obama delegate I know has gotten the general campaign emails and maybe a convention email or two and maybe even a call, but hasn't been squeezed with the full-on "Show up or your life is forfeit" song and dance. Thoughts? Experiences? Prognostications? Like I said, this is all anecdotal and I could be way off, but it seems like Clinton is pushing hard.
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It's a wash
By Lorenzo Sadun
Mon, 03/31/2008 - 2:07pm
The Clinton campaign pushed very hard, and made some significant gains in South Texas, and especially in El Paso. The Obama campaign made gains in Houston, Dallas, Austin and Ft. Worth. Overall, each campaign increased its lead where it was already ahead, and these gains canceled each other out. Obama's final margin is almost exactly the 55-45 I projected back on March 5.
The remaining question is whether Obama wins the caucuses by 7 delegates or 9 (and so wins the primary-caucus combination by 3 or 5). That depends on what the state superdelegates do, and that depends on what happens in the next two months of campaigning.