Handicapping the Republican Candidate Field

The last time there was not an incumbent running for re-election (President) or election (Vice President running for Presidency) in the United States was 1928; the election of 1928 gave the country four years of Warren Harding, a fitting historical comparison for George W. Bush. We can only hope that 2008 will provide us with someone far better than either the historical albatross of Harding or the contemporary embarrassment of Bush.

The Republican field is, much like the Democratic field, a crowded one. The Clinton and Obama of the Republican field so far are Senator John McCain, the media-ordained maverick and working-family-hating Senator from Arizona and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has decided to take some time off from close friends with mob connections, obstructing police probes and dumping his wife on the 6:00 news to run for the Presidency.

Before delving into the dynamics of this crowded field, this is a good point at which to talk a little about opinion polling in these early stages of the primary season. We're approaching 11 months and change until time for the Iowa caucuses; right now, many second tier and spoiler candidates have little to no name recognition nationally or in the early primary states where momentum is made or broken. Many of the polls that you will see on the news and read in print or online are going to be national polls which are of limited use in terms of handicapping performance in specific primaries and caucuses but are important in terms of fundraising. While national polls don't tell you the story of how a candidate is doing in Iowa, a national poll can tell you about the perception of a candidate's viability that does have a direct impact on a candidate's ability to fundraise in a crowded field. Polling likely caucus-goers in Iowa has its own unique pitfalls.

Another thing that gets lost quite a bit in the Poll-A-Palooza environment we're in right now is clarity on opinion polling; for the sake of clarity in this article, I will provide sample sizes and populations when possible whenever I discuss a candidate's polling numbers. Like most things, a lot of the mystique of polling numbers can be cleared up with the application of a little transparency.

My initial assessment of the Republican field as it stands this last weekend in January 2007 is that there is more squishiness in the big names and more potential second tier challengers than in the Democratic field, but that we are a long way from having any clear frontrunners. McCain's numbers have taken a pounding on his public attachment to the "McCain Doctrine" of surging troop levels in Iraq to help establish security, a policy now owned by a massively unpopular White House. Being tied in the public eye to an unpopular White House on what was already an unpopular strategy in an unpopular war has guaranteed declines in his approval rating nationally among registered voters from 59% in December to 52% in the last full week in January. Being caught on camera sleeping during the State of the Union speech didn't help him either, although only time will tell if it will turn out to be an age gaffe on par with Bob Dole falling off a stage during the 1996 election cycle. Despite his national decline in fortune, a SurveyUSA phone survey collected between 1/26 and 1/28 sampling 412 likely Republican voters in New Hampshire found McCain (32%) and Giuliani (33%) neck and neck with Romney (21%) bringing up third while 11% of respondents said they would vote for some other Republican. The margin of error for the poll was 4.9%.

So far the primary beneficiary for McCain's gestating of unpopular ideas is former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the man lionized in the aftermath of the attacks on September 11, 2001 as "America's Mayor." While Giuliani has his share of potential skeletons and is roundly disliked by the majority of social conservatives, he is well liked among moderate Republicans and likely voters. At this stage, being well liked among likely voters and $5.25 will get you a stack of pancakes and some fresh maple syrup at Bradford Junction, but it's not going to get you through the primary season. Still, his consistent national numbers and good showing in early New Hampshire polling give him some early momentum.

Rounding out the top tier, more so because he is not a complete polling has-been like the rest of the field, is Mitt Romney. The former Governor of Massachusetts is in a strange position; he is known, but inasmuch as he is known, that is a bad thing for his political chances. He has a record reflecting social conservative credentials but he is not trusted by social conservatives because he is from the Northeast and a Mormon. He has a certain telegenic flair to him but this flair is canceled out by his finger-in-the-wind positioning on public policy. Romney's biggest problem is his Mormon faith; national polling of likely voters from Rasmussen in November of last year found that 43% of respondents would not consider voting for Romney because he is a Mormon; 53% of evangelical voters responded that they would not vote for him because of his faith. Like Giuliani, I think he's going to have a very hard time in the Midwest and South. Giuliani is more moderate and just about anybody but Giuliani is going to be more acceptable to the social conservatives. If the SurveyUSA poll cited earlier is any indication, if Romney can't manage a stronger showing in the heart of the region Massachusetts politicians consider their backyard, then he faces some serious challenges.

The second tier of Republican candidates include Senator Chuck Hagel, former Governor Mike Huckabee and Representative Duncan Hunter. With the squishiness at the top of the Republican slate at this time, each of these three candidates brings something that could push them into the top tier to the electoral table. I am hesitant to include Senator Hagel in this group because he is also close to being a spoiler, with his single issue being the handling of the Iraq war. Because of how emotive this issue is, however, and because of Hagel's unapologetic leadership of the opposition to the White House's surge plan, I think he's in an excellent position to make up ground at McCain's expense, at least until McCain can find an alternative plan and then be effusively praised for his maverick-ness and strength in doing so by his cheering section at MSNBC, FOX News and CNN.

Former Governor Huckabee and Representative Hunter are the Edwards and Richardson of the Republican field, although with lower polling numbers than their Democratic counterparts. As a recent Southern Governor and a media-savvy politician, I think Huckabee successfully straddles the moderate/social conservative divide by appealing to both but not being rooted in either, reminiscent of a certain Democratic Governor of Arkansas. Representative Hunter is a "conservative's conservative" who is an outspoken opponent of illegal immigration, abortion, flag burning and an outspoken proponent of a strong military. If he can remain financially viable through the stronger single issue or group of issues voices like Hagel, Tancredo and Brownback, he could find himself in excellent position to offer a consistently hard-line conservative message which is something that is lacking so far in this field's top tier.

The spoilers are well represented. Colorado's own Know Nothing Representative Tom Tancredo is a single-issue candidate, and his Presidential run begins and ends based on immigration. I think he will do well in California (if he makes it that far), the Southwest and the South, but I can't imagine voters in Iowa and New Hampshire getting that worked up about building a fence along our border with Mexico and turning our country into a police state aimed at arresting and deporting all illegal immigrants. Flat Earth Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas isn't a single-issue candidate, but I still classify him as a spoiler. His primary focus is the core of social conservative issues, issues that he has championed in the Senate. His record combined with his strong personal beliefs makes him a very dangerous candidate to those above him in the field considering how powerful the social conservative block of the Republican Party is in primary season; at the same time I think his views are far enough outside the conservative mainstream that he will end up being a candidate who can ruin primaries and caucuses for other candidates but probably not win any outright. It will be interesting to see if there is a wider national refutation of the social conservative agenda like the one we've seen in the last two election cycles in Brownback's home state of Kansas.

Republitarian Representative Ron Paul of Texas is a difficult candidate to figure out . His paleoconservative/libertarian views are out of the Republican base's social conservative mainstream; it's not enough for them to say you're going to put decisions back in the hands of the states. Besides the obvious problems with fundraising there's his small government/anti-federalism message that sounds good to conservative ears but that usually doesn't translate at the polls on a national level. He does sound good for the average New Hampshire Republican and a lot of New Hampshire independents as well. That being said, he's on my short list along with former Secretary and Governor Tommy Thompson to be the first to bow out within the next months' time after a couple of New Hampshire pancake breakfasts.

Overall, this field of candidates, much like the Democratic field, is a tough one to figure out at this early stage. The first benchmark for both parties candidates will be the first FEC reports which will be available in April; in what has already been tagged as the most expensive election in American history, the trends on early money will be important in separating the pretenders from the contenders. The second benchmark is going to be when we finally have a firm primary and caucus calendar for 2008. The unsettled state of the primaries and caucuses makes it hard to gauge the regional impact of the calendar in establishing early momentum. Finally, the third benchmark, closely tied into the first one, will be both national polling of this field and polling in the likely early primary and caucus states. National polling numbers will be important in fundraising, while state primary polling will be important to get an idea of who will have to spend their money where.

My rank order as of 1/29/2007:

Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Senator John McCain
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
Senator Sam Brownback
Senator Chuck Hagel
Representative Duncan Hunter
Representative Tom Tancredo
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee
Representative Ron Paul
Former HHS Secretary and Governor Tommy Thompson