Is Obama Running for Vice President?

Right here, today, I'm gonna make this claim: Obama is not ready for this. He will be President someday, but not before he's Vice President first. He's raised an incredible amount of money, but an aggregate of polls seems to indicate that a great deal of that was front-loaded. He is headed the wrong direction to win the nomination, and he is likely to weaken the once invincible Hillary Clinton on his way down. The result will be an open door in Iowa for John Edwards, who starts out with a huge organizational advantage, and then the wheels, as they say, will come off the wagon.

First, there's the polls. John Edwards is destroying in Iowa, and until the caucus there is over, those are the only polls you should be paying attention to. The winner in Iowa is, historically, incredibly likely to be the Democratic nominee. This year I think that's doubly true if Edwards hangs on to his lead and his advantage and wins. An Iowa winner emerging from what looks like third place in a crowded top tier provides extraordinary momentum to Edwards. Obama is unlikely to make headway in Iowa for two reasons: firstly, Iowans, at their core, demand substance from a candidate, and Barack is long on charisma and hope and short on actual plans thus far; second, Obama has officially run out of time to build an effective state-wide organization in Iowa, and lots of primary money can buy you a lot, but it can't buy you time and entrenchment. Edwards used one to create the other since 2004.

Clinton has the same organizational difficulties. Edwards has a campaign chair in all 99 counties in Iowa, as well as over a thousand precinct chairs. These are volunteers in an organization that's been cultivated since before 2004, and you can't buy that. This, truly, is an example of people-powered politics, and barring catastrophe, it looks like Edwards has the best shot to win Iowa. You can't discount Clinton's political experience, which certainly eclipses Obama's and make a victory for her in Iowa at least possible, although unlikely.

In the rest of the country, Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead in most polls up to this week's big money reveal, but recent polling has shown that trends are working against both her and Obama. Clinton has lost her shiny invulnerability and Obama's lack of experience and substance are starting to get exposed, and that creates a problem in the Clinton camp. Now she is in the gutter with everyone else slugging it out, and virtually unlimited funds for her and Obama spell trouble for them both. Clinton is down in the most recent New Hampshire polling, she's losing to Obama in the most recent Zogby poll from New Hampshire, and the gap from first to third place has shrunk considerably there.

The polls are not nice to Obama nationally, who with all this excitement should probably be leading in the polls in more than one state (Illinois, from whence he came) but he is not. The money will fix some of that, but not all of it.

When I used to judge UIL contests, the common knowledge was that whoever all the judges scored as second place usually ended up being the winner, and I suspect the same may be true in politics where you've got three strong candidates. The divisiveness that will inevitably be created by the Clinton and Obama campaigns as they hammer on each other will lead many voters to go to their second choice candidate, who will overwhelmingly and inexorably be John Edwards. Obama's initial surge and saturation led him north of 20% in most polls, but as the MSM tires of him and his lack of substance is exposed by his lack of experience (which sometimes works for you up front and against you later in presidential politics), his numbers will continue to drop, settling somewhere around 15% nationwide. Edwards is on his way up, and Hillary is also headed in the wrong direction, although her problems will look more like stagnation than failure.

Then there is the problem with sustaining the finance race. Obama has enough donors to deliver an impressive second quarter, but I just don't see how it can happen. Clinton's numbers will drop as well, but the dip will probably not be as severe as Obama's will. Edwards will likely have another strong quarter, and if everyone evens out in the 15-18 million range, Edwards is the big winner because the raw numbers will look bad for Clinton and Obama. Also, Bill Richardson should in no way be written off. $6 million is nothing to sneeze at, and if he turns in another productive quarter he will at least be able to control some of the agenda of the primaries.

So, I began by asking if Barack Obama is running for Vice President. He has to know he is outmatched on experience and organization. He is in no way dumb, so this reality must not have escaped him: whoever the nominee is, if it isn't Barack Obama, the Vice Presidential nominee will be Barack Obama. Of this, I am as certain as I can be. His path to the White House likely runs through the OEOB.

An interesting question to ponder is who Obama's VP nominee would be. Any ideas?