The Rest of the States

With the dust having settled from the Potomac Primary, Barack Obama has a lead of about 30 delegates over Hillary Clinton in the race for the presidential nomination. Obama is up by about 120 pledged delegates and down about 90 superdelegates, with the exact numbers depending on whose count you trust. Clinton will need to make that up in the remaining contests, especially in the big states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Can she do it?

By my count, Clinton has an advantage in 6 remaining states with 596 delegates. Obama has an advantage in 9 states with a 409 delegates. Two states with 66 delegates are toss-ups. If Clinton gets 60% of the delegates in her states and Obama gets 60% of the delegates in his, she'll gain 37 delegates on him. If the superdelegates don't break in either direction, we'll be back to where we were before February 12, with Obama ahead on pledged delegates, Clinton ahead on superdelegates, and the two practically tied in total delegates.

The trouble for Clinton is that getting 60% of the delegates means winning the popular vote by close to 20 points, and she's only managed that in Arkansas and Oklahoma. Her big-state wins in California (10 points), New Jersey (10 points), Massachusetts (15 points) and New York (17 points), while impressive, all fell short. Meanwhile, Obama has been winning his smaller states by margins of up to 63%. To win the nomination, Clinton will have to stop the bleeding in the small states or trounce Obama in the big states.

Here are the remaining states in chronological order. I have not factored in money, momentum, and the candidates' ability to change the picture. All that can change quickly, but here's where things stand right now.

Wisconsin (74 delegates, Feb 19 primary) has a strong liberal tradition and is next door to Illinois. Expect zillions of Obama volunteers to drive up from Chicago to help his campaign, while Clinton seems to have given up on Wisconsin. If Obama doesn't win and win big, I'll be shocked.

Hawaii (20 delegates, Feb 19 caucus) It's a caucus. Obama grew up there. Obama in a walk.

Texas (193 delegates, March 4 primary/caucus) Demographics favor Clinton, and early polling shows her up by about 10. However, the delegate allocation process favors Obama, with Obama-friendly districts having more delegates per capita than Clinton-friendly districts. Put Texas in Clinton's column, but her delegate gains here are likely to be small.

Ohio (141 delegates, March 4 primary) This is a big state with lots of working-class white voters, and early polls show Clinton up by 17%.

Rhode Island (21 delegates, March 4 primary) Clinton will send her supporters up from New York (if they're not all in Ohio and Texas), Obama will bring college students down from Boston, and Rhode Island's population will double. Initial polls show Clinton up by 8 (36-28), but with a huge number of undecided. Put this in Clinton's column, but an Obama win wouldn't surprise me.

Vermont (15 delegates, March 4 primary) The home of Bernie Sanders and Howard Dean should go for Obama, except that it's next door to New York. Call it a toss-up.

Wyoming (12 delegates, March 8 caucus) Obama should easily win the last caucus of the year.

Mississippi (33 delegates, March 10 primary) This is a lot more like Alabama and Louisiana than like Tennessee. Small advantage to Obama.

Then nothing happens for 5 weeks, while zillions of campaign staff descend on

Pennsylvania (158 delegates, April 22 primary) Big advantage to Clinton. This is where she could get a 20%+ win. Obama can't try to run out the clock, since Clinton will have over a month to build her case.

North Carolina (115 delegates, May 6 primary) Why doesn't anybody mention North Carolina? 115 is a lot of delegates! It's a southern state and I wasn't surprised to see Obama up by 10 in initial polling. The wild card is John Edwards. If he endorses Clinton (which I don't expect), it could tip the balance.

Indiana (72 delegates, May 6 primary) Next door to Illinois. Should favor Obama.

West Virginia (28 delegates, May 13) Appalachia should be good for Clinton.

Oregon (52 delegates, May 20) Lots of tree-huggers and latte-sippers. Should be good for Obama.

Kentucky (51 delegates, May 20) Borders Illinois, but the not-so-deep south has been good to Clinton. Call it a toss-up.

Montana (16 delegates, June 3) The mountain west likes Obama.

South Dakota (15 delegates, June 3) So do the plains.

Puerto Rico (55 delegates, June 7) If she's still fighting, Clinton will finish with a big win here.

Bottom line: Clinton can still win the nomination by doing well in March through June, but the odds are against her. She has to win Texas, win big in Ohio, win very big in Pennsylvania, and avoid the sort of drubbing that she just got in Maryland and Virginia.