Rick Perry's Five Year Plan

When speaking to Republicans, Governor Rick Perry talks of defeating the “liberal scourge” and portrays the ’08 election as a “fight for the soul of the nation.” Given his conservative values, and those of his supporters, one might expect Perry to fall in with Mike Huckabee. Instead he endorsed the two Republicans conservatives hate most: Rudy Giuliani, and John McCain. Taken with some of Perry’s recent activities, it seems clear that the governor is planning for his political future.

Perry has been governor for almost 10 years, but his hold on the office is slipping. He barely kept his seat in 2006, with just 39 percent of the vote, down from 58 percent in 2002. Since then, his statewide approval rating has generally hovered at or below 50 percent. With his governor’s chair in peril, Perry may be planning for a post-Austin career.

When Perry announced his Giuliani endorsement, it was easy to imagine a Giuliani-Perry ticket. Perry still denies that he would leave Texas for D.C, but the rumors have persisted. The Dallas Morning News quoted Giuliani, when asked about a possible Perry VP nod, as stating that Perry was “on the top of everybody’s list.”

Even if he’s not aiming for the White House, Perry is clearly aiming to increase his national stature. To succeed in national politics, he will need to be more visible outside of Texas and has begun to do just that He was recently elected chairman of the Republican Governors Association, a position sure to give him more prominence, and attended the elite, invitation-only Bilderberg Conference in 2007. Even his recent book, On My Honor: Why the American Values of the Boy Scouts Are Worth Fighting For, might bring more visibility. Associating himself with presidential candidates is a likely strategy for increasing his exposure.

Perry’s first presidential endorsement surprised many of his supporters. Giuliani supports gun control, gay marriage, and abortion; all anathema to conservative Republicans, especially in Texas. Barely a month before his endorsement, Perry urged the California GOP not to go moderate on key issues just to beat Democrats.

Endorsing a moderate candidate apparently wasn’t easy, at least the first time. Perry is said to have struggled over Giuliani’s stance on abortion before making up his mind, calling Giuliani the “most electable” Republican candidate and praising his position on national security.

Their odd allegiance came to light when Giuliani endorsed Perry for governor in 2006. Aside from wondering why a social conservative like Perry would endorse Giuliani, the obvious question is what stake a former New York mayor would have in a Texas governor’s re-election, aside from partisan fraternity. Giuliani, when his presidential prospects were still bright, could have benefited from Perry’s friendship. With his controversial views, (at least within the GOP) Giuliani needed allies like Perry to court Texas conservatives.

The Perry-Giuliani connection also extends into the business world, and their business and political interests seem to converge around Governor Perry’s most contentious pet project: the Trans-Texas Corridor.

In 2005, Giuliani became a named partner in the Houston-based Bracewell & Patterson, a law firm known for representing big energy. The re-named Bracewell & Giuliani recently represented Cintra-Zachry, a consortium comprising Cintra, a Spanish toll road operating company, and San Antonio’s Zachary Construction. Cintra-Zachry has been contracted to do work on the Trans-Texas Corridor. The company, along with the Texas Department of Transportation, sued to prevent the release of business information related to the project.

Giuliani denied any involvement in the Cintra case, and Perry was unaware of the firm’s involvement with Cintra, according to his spokesperson.

Bracewell & Giuliani is also a big campaign donor, with most of their donations going to Republicans-88 percent, in Texas. They gave $20,000 to Perry’s 2006 campaign, according to an article on the Texans for Public Justice website. The firm’s managing partner, Houston resident Patrick Oxford, was the chairman of Giuliani’s campaign and raised money for George Bush in 2000.

The Perry endorsement might have given Giuliani a better chance in Texas. Supporting McCain may give conservatives more reason to doubt Perry, but McCain has expressed hopes that having the Texas governor’s support will help him win conservative voters.

McCain, like Giuliani, has many detractors in the Republican Party. As the primary race intensifies, anti-McCain sentiment is escalating among conservatives, including some of the far right’s most visible spokespeople. Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter vehemently oppose him. Evangelical Christian leader James Dobson has spoken against him. The religious right, once a guaranteed Republican vote, is now estranged and wary of the party’s front-runner.

More recently, The Dallas Morning News reiterated its support of Mike Huckabee over McCain. While admitting that McCain is the clear victor, the editorial characterizes Huckabee “a good investment in the Republican Party’s future.” It’s easy to see the choice of Huckabee’s “good-natured” approach over McCain’s more traditional values as a blow to the likely Republican nominee.

Still, endorsing McCain might not damage Perry’s prospects, or diminish his support among Texas conservatives. Kelly Shackelford, president of the Free Market Foundation, a Plano-based group affiliated with Focus on the Family, is no McCain supporter, but he still backs Perry.

“His positions on life and family issues are those he believes in, and there’s no evidence he’s changed them,” said Shackelford.

Bill Brannon, a Texas field director for the Democratic National Committee, says that the endorsement won’t diminish Perry’s evangelical support.

“Perry has substantial credibility with the Republican evangelical community based on how he’s conducted the state’s business,” said Brannon. According to Brannon, Perry’s endorsement will have little effect on McCain’s chances, and was of less consequence than his endorsement of Giuliani.

“That’s where he made it obvious he had plans outside of Texas,” said Brannon. With McCain, Brannon just sees Perry following a trend. “The train’s out of the station, down the track, and he’s trying to jump on the caboose.”

It is likely that Perry is preparing the next phase of his political career. If he loses the next election, or decides not to run, he may have a bigger position in mind. While it is easy to see that Perry is preparing for something, his exact plans are uncertain, and it seems that Perry is content to leave us guessing.