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The Texas Blue
Advancing Progressive Ideas

State Rep Results Across Texas

There were actually races happening outside of presidential politics last night, and many in the state rep realm were of interest, including mixed-to-bad news for Texas Republicans and Speaker Tom Craddick.

Candidates under Tom Craddick's wing managed victories in HD 43 - Ybarra defeated Democratic incumbent Juan Escobar - and in HD 146, where Al Edwards wrested a seat from Democratic incumbent Borris Miles. That is more or less where the good news ends for Craddick.

Craddick supporter and (recipient of Leininger funds) Nathan Macias (HD 73) was beaten by Doug Miller, and Armando Walle beat incumbent Republican Kevin Bailey. These are big losses for Craddick.

On more neutral ground, Marisa Marquez rose up and took out incumbent Paul Moreno. Marquez has publicly come out against Craddick.

One of the big questions centered on State Representative Pat Haggerty, who was targeted by Craddick in the form of Republican challenger Dee Margo. Margo won the seat, but El Paso is likely to reject Margo and, by extension, Craddick and elect Democratic candidate Joseph Moody in November. Combine that with the Democratic turnout and I think Craddick and his ilk, although he played to what is essentially a wash in the primary, will have a hard night in early November.

What?

The Democratic turnout will be about the same in November, the high turnout was because more November voters showed up at the primary polls than before. The presidential primary had everything to do with it. The GOP will keep the El Paso seat because GOP turnout will be bigger in November, they didn't have a presidential primary to turn out general election voters like the Dems did.
You should listen to your friend McLeod. This was a good night for Craddick. And Craddick will have another good night in November. Especially if Eppstein is still involved after having such a pathetic performance last night.

Turnout

While it would be overreaching to expect a wildly imbalanced overflow of 8 million Democrats at the polls in November, I think it is also naive to presume that Democratic turnout in the general election will be similar to previous years and to totally discount the possibility of big increases. The truth is, forecasting much of anything correctly this year is difficult because the game has changed everywhere.

early voting

Was Huckabee not on the El Paso ballot, and I didn't know about it? You can be sure that many hadn't heard about Huckabee's dropping until the next day's paper, seeing as he did it the afternoon of the primary.

Even so, they definitely had a primary during early voting. And the turnout for Democrats was still multiples of the Republican turnout. The Democratic swing is no myth.

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