State Senate: Kuff breaks it down

Via Burnt Orange Report, I heard about some work from Charles Kuffner, who enjoys putting together numbers on a variety of races. In a piece entitled Targeting 2008: State Senate, Kuff points out that some Republican state senators may be vulnerable to strong challenges, or at the very least don't seem totally rock solid.

This analysis is particularly interesting in light of the showdown that will invariably happen soon in the Senate. Rodney Ellis has sworn that the Voter ID bills won't pass, but as Kuff points out (referencing Burka), if anyone defects, the opposition number drops to 10, and the fight is over. This struggle, in and of itself, delineates a little more sharply that Democrats could really, really use a pickup in the Senate. Or two. Or maybe four.

It is also interesting because Denton County (home county of the Blue) is involved in the analysis, even though Kuff predicts that the GOP state senator whose district is made up of a majority of Denton County (Harris) isn't likely to get beaten. Kuff is likely right, absent an incredible challenger.

The word on Brimer is interesting, though; anyone running against him has a built-in issue that's worth at least one piece of mail, and maybe a few: he, along with Senator Jane Nelson, did that thing where they paid rent on real estate that their spouses owned with campaign dollars. We haven't heard much about it, but there it is.

Finally, I had forgotten until I looked at the 2006 numbers again, but Judge Bill Moody didn't do too badly at all in his Texas Supreme Court race. Those numbers may prove useful yet.