2008 New Hampshire Primary Open Thread

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 12:37pm

Josh tells me there's a crowd gathering outside our office clamoring for a place to share their New Hampshire prognostications. I say to him, I give the people what they want. Publish your New Hampshire nuggets of wisdom in the comments at your whim.

EDIT: Early numbers have started to come in for New Hampshire today; we'll be following along in the comments as the results come in.

EDIT: Obama's conceded, and Clinton gets the win. Final numbers: Clinton 39%, Obama 36%, Edwards 17%, Richardson 5%, Kucinich 1%. Gravel didn't register. On the Republican side: McCain 37%, Romney 32%, Huckabee 11%, Giuliani 9%, Paul 8%, Thompson and Hunter 1% each.

Kicking off guesses

By George Nassar

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 12:39pm

Well, I already posted my guesses at the DMN's Trailblazer blog a little while back, so I'm pretty much stuck with them.

My wild guesses — er, carefully crafted calculations:

Democrats:
Obama 38
Clinton 30
Edwards 21
Richardson 6

Republicans:
McCain 32
Romney 26
Huckabee 14
Giuliani 10
Paul 10
Thompson 2

McCain gets hurt by Obama pulling independents; Huck gets better-than-expected turnout from people that just like the guy. Giuliani does a bit better than expected; Paul more so. So does Edwards, picking up some strays from the Clinton camp.

Polling Truthiness

By Patrick M McLeod

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 1:01pm

After bringing all manner of computational power to bear on every number possible using everything from traditional analysis to Bayesian analysis to cutting-edge neural networks, I decided to throw all that out and just go with my sketchily-informed opinions:

Democrats:
Obama 35
Clinton 28
Edwards 25
Richardson 8

Republicans:
McCain 30
Romney 28
Huckabee 16
Paul 11
Giuliani 8
Thompson 1

Obama will out-draw McCain among the Granite State's vaunted independents 2 to 1.

Clearly, a guess

By Josh Berthume

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 1:47pm

Democrats

Obama: 36
Clinton: 31
Edwards: 20
Richardson: 7
----------------
Hart: 2
Gravel: 1

Republicans

McCain: 33
Romney: 30
Huckabee: 11
Paul: 8
Giuliani: 5
Thompson: 2
----------------
Buchanan: 1

I think McCain keeps more independents than it seems like he will, and Romney does better than we might suspect. And Vermin Supreme keep Thompson's numbers down by promising free pizza and beer.

Oh, numbers

By Grace Stevens

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 2:21pm

My Predictions 2008!TM are as follows:

Obamarama 44%
Clintonian 29%
Edwardarific 20%
Richardsonny 7%

McCain 36.999%
Romney 31%
Huckabee 16%
Guiliani 6%
Paul 10%
Thompson .001%

My predictions are based on my inappropriate love of numbers, counting and asking people questions.

Going for the two-fer

By John McClelland

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 2:25pm

I am one for one in my predictions. I called Iowa's Dem top 3 in direct order. So I will give it a shot for New Hampshire, with numbers this time. Here we go:

Democrats:
Obama 37
Clinton 27
Edwards 24
Richardson 4

everyone else gets the scraps

Republicans:
McCain 30
Romney 28
Huckabee 14
Paul 10
Giuliani 10
Thompson 4

again scraps to everyone else

Numbers will be tough to predict in this primary due to the fact everyone, their mama, and some cousins, are filed to run for President.

From Dallas

By Josh Berthume

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 2:33pm

Sam Jones says:

I call McCain and Obama with Clinton close and Romney far behind

Looking back at these

By Guest

Fri, 05/27/2011 - 1:17am

Looking back at these comments and predictions is pretty funny, you actually got it right though so congrats! lol - Aaron Kocourek

With a little help from my friends

By Betsy Parchem

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 3:38pm

My predictions for the Democratic primary are pretty much the same as everyone else's. I'm more worried about who the Democrat is up against, so I polled the Republicans I know, and here are their predicitons:

Republican #1:
Mc - 32%, Huck - 27%, Rom - 25%, Rudy - 10%, Fred - 4%, Paul - 2%

Repulican #2:

Romney 30%
McCain 27%
Huckabee 23%

Republican #3:

McCain
Huckabee
Romney

So... I don't know what conclusions to make from that.

Special Insight

By Karl Lynch

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 3:01pm

As one of the few people in the room that lived in NH, I feel that my picks will most closely reflect the minds and hearts of the great people of the Granite State.

Obama 55%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 15%

Two fairly worthless cents

By Angela Brewer

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 3:21pm

And the winner is...

Obama 35%
Clinton 32%
Edwards 24%
Richardson 7%

McCain 25%
The Mittster 23%
Huckabees 18%
Rudy 10%
Law and Order Thompson 5%

And on another front, Cowboys over Giants by 6.

If Obama wins tonight, he's

By David Gurney

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 5:12pm

If Obama wins tonight, he's probably going to get the nomination.

If he wins the general, we may have seen the last baby boomer President. They'll be getting a little long in the tooth in four years.

Worth less than 2 cents

By Lorenzo Sadun

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 5:17pm

My predictions:

The good guys:

Obama: 41
Clinton: 29
Edwards: 21
Others: 9

The bad guys:

McCain: 33 (would be more, but the independents are busy voting for Obama)
Romney: 30
Huckabee: 14
Paul: 10
Others: single digits

Turnout, part 2

By Josh Berthume

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 5:33pm

MSNBC is reporting that turnout in Londonderry, New Hampshire is 70%.

You had to be here for it

By Josh Berthume

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 5:35pm

...but George just levied a Sun Myung Snap on me.

I did.

By George Nassar

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 5:48pm

And well deserved. It was a right Moonie dis.

Results starting

By George Nassar

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 7:15pm

So we have around 12% of precincts in, and MSNBC is already calling the Republican race for McCain, who currently has 37% of the vote to Romney's 28%. The Democrats have been a different bag, as both Clinton and Obama have been in the lead as the numbers have crawled up. Clinton's currently slightly up, 38% - 36%.

Huh.

By Josh Berthume

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 7:19pm

I expected the Democratic side to be closer than most people were predicting, but not this close.

Is it the economy?

By Josh Berthume

Tue, 01/08/2008 - 7:21pm

You know, the exit polls say economy is the winner. It is incredibly early to say that Clinton wins on it, but maybe the close proximity has to do with a reflection of that economic concern, an area in which experience (and Bill) is helpful.