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2008 New Hampshire Primary Open Thread

George Nassar's picture

Josh tells me there's a crowd gathering outside our office clamoring for a place to share their New Hampshire prognostications. I say to him, I give the people what they want. Publish your New Hampshire nuggets of wisdom in the comments at your whim.

EDIT: Early numbers have started to come in for New Hampshire today; we'll be following along in the comments as the results come in.

EDIT: Obama's conceded, and Clinton gets the win. Final numbers: Clinton 39%, Obama 36%, Edwards 17%, Richardson 5%, Kucinich 1%. Gravel didn't register. On the Republican side: McCain 37%, Romney 32%, Huckabee 11%, Giuliani 9%, Paul 8%, Thompson and Hunter 1% each.

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Kicking off guesses

Well, I already posted my guesses at the DMN's Trailblazer blog a little while back, so I'm pretty much stuck with them.

My wild guesses — er, carefully crafted calculations:

Democrats:
Obama 38
Clinton 30
Edwards 21
Richardson 6

Republicans:
McCain 32
Romney 26
Huckabee 14
Giuliani 10
Paul 10
Thompson 2

McCain gets hurt by Obama pulling independents; Huck gets better-than-expected turnout from people that just like the guy. Giuliani does a bit better than expected; Paul more so. So does Edwards, picking up some strays from the Clinton camp.

Polling Truthiness

After bringing all manner of computational power to bear on every number possible using everything from traditional analysis to Bayesian analysis to cutting-edge neural networks, I decided to throw all that out and just go with my sketchily-informed opinions:

Democrats:
Obama 35
Clinton 28
Edwards 25
Richardson 8

Republicans:
McCain 30
Romney 28
Huckabee 16
Paul 11
Giuliani 8
Thompson 1

Obama will out-draw McCain among the Granite State's vaunted independents 2 to 1.

Clearly, a guess

Democrats

Obama: 36
Clinton: 31
Edwards: 20
Richardson: 7
----------------
Hart: 2
Gravel: 1

Republicans

McCain: 33
Romney: 30
Huckabee: 11
Paul: 8
Giuliani: 5
Thompson: 2
----------------
Buchanan: 1

I think McCain keeps more independents than it seems like he will, and Romney does better than we might suspect. And Vermin Supreme keep Thompson's numbers down by promising free pizza and beer.

Oh, numbers

My Predictions 2008!TM are as follows:

Obamarama 44%
Clintonian 29%
Edwardarific 20%
Richardsonny 7%

McCain 36.999%
Romney 31%
Huckabee 16%
Guiliani 6%
Paul 10%
Thompson .001%

My predictions are based on my inappropriate love of numbers, counting and asking people questions.

Going for the two-fer

I am one for one in my predictions. I called Iowa's Dem top 3 in direct order. So I will give it a shot for New Hampshire, with numbers this time. Here we go:

Democrats:
Obama 37
Clinton 27
Edwards 24
Richardson 4

everyone else gets the scraps

Republicans:
McCain 30
Romney 28
Huckabee 14
Paul 10
Giuliani 10
Thompson 4

again scraps to everyone else

Numbers will be tough to predict in this primary due to the fact everyone, their mama, and some cousins, are filed to run for President.

From Dallas

Sam Jones says:

I call McCain and Obama with Clinton close and Romney far behind

Looking back at these

Looking back at these comments and predictions is pretty funny, you actually got it right though so congrats! lol - Aaron Kocourek

With a little help from my friends

My predictions for the Democratic primary are pretty much the same as everyone else's. I'm more worried about who the Democrat is up against, so I polled the Republicans I know, and here are their predicitons:

Republican #1:
Mc - 32%, Huck - 27%, Rom - 25%, Rudy - 10%, Fred - 4%, Paul - 2%

Repulican #2:

Romney 30%
McCain 27%
Huckabee 23%

Republican #3:

McCain
Huckabee
Romney

So... I don't know what conclusions to make from that.

Special Insight

As one of the few people in the room that lived in NH, I feel that my picks will most closely reflect the minds and hearts of the great people of the Granite State.

Obama 55%
Clinton 30%
Edwards 15%

Two fairly worthless cents

And the winner is...

Obama 35%
Clinton 32%
Edwards 24%
Richardson 7%

McCain 25%
The Mittster 23%
Huckabees 18%
Rudy 10%
Law and Order Thompson 5%

And on another front, Cowboys over Giants by 6.

If Obama wins tonight, he's

If Obama wins tonight, he's probably going to get the nomination.

If he wins the general, we may have seen the last baby boomer President. They'll be getting a little long in the tooth in four years.

Worth less than 2 cents

My predictions:

The good guys:

Obama: 41
Clinton: 29
Edwards: 21
Others: 9

The bad guys:

McCain: 33 (would be more, but the independents are busy voting for Obama)
Romney: 30
Huckabee: 14
Paul: 10
Others: single digits

Turnout, part 2

MSNBC is reporting that turnout in Londonderry, New Hampshire is 70%.

You had to be here for it

...but George just levied a Sun Myung Snap on me.

I did.

And well deserved. It was a right Moonie dis.

Results starting

So we have around 12% of precincts in, and MSNBC is already calling the Republican race for McCain, who currently has 37% of the vote to Romney's 28%. The Democrats have been a different bag, as both Clinton and Obama have been in the lead as the numbers have crawled up. Clinton's currently slightly up, 38% - 36%.

Huh.

I expected the Democratic side to be closer than most people were predicting, but not this close.

Is it the economy?

You know, the exit polls say economy is the winner. It is incredibly early to say that Clinton wins on it, but maybe the close proximity has to do with a reflection of that economic concern, an area in which experience (and Bill) is helpful.

Sideways

Everything is starting to feel like it could go off the rails. I feel like nobody really knows what's going on. Including me.

Exit poll cross tabs

Clinton winning older voters, less affluent voters - with a five point lead at 24% reporting.

Six points. 30-24. Edwards

Six points. 30-24. Edwards at 17%.

Clinton's lead is down to

Clinton's lead is down to 4%, with 30% reporting -- I'd wait until the lead changed more dramatically, but Josh is antsy for details. :-)

McCain's speech

McCain's speech was just about the least inspiring thing ever.

I'm sure it would have been

I'm sure it would have been much better if he hadn't read it straight off the page.

No, I lie. It would have simply not been quite as dreadfully bad.

Wes Clark

He just inspired me by saying "Hillary Clinton has game."

now *that's* close

2% spread, 43% reporting. It's tightening down quick.

State Nickname Jokes

New Hampshire says "We'll decide how to vote on our own. Don't take us for Granite."

63% reporting

Clinton is holding on to her three-point lead, 39%-36%. It's boding very well for Senator Clinton.

Numbers

Now we're playing the "votes from neighborhood X could change it" game.

Clinton wins.

NBC projects a Clinton win.

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