Stories By Numbers: Candidates and Campaigns

Dr. Richard Murray is the foremost political scientist in Houston. Both Republicans and Democrats deeply respect his opinions and analysis. I had 5 classes as an undergraduate with Dr. Murray and heard countless anecdotes about modern electoral politics. However, the thing he would always come back to remains the thing candidates and campaigns should never lose sight of: whoever gets the most votes wins.

That may seem extraordinarily simple, and it is. For all the polling, messaging, and field work, it all comes down to adding up votes on Election Day. It all comes down to math. For someone who cares about funding the Children's Health Insurance Program, teacher pay raises, and protecting our environment, saying your hopes lie with math and numbers is kind of a bummer. This is similar to when people ask a campaign, "What can I do to help?" and they are told that block walking and phone calling are the top volunteer priorities. It isn't very sexy, but it's what matters.

Walking the Walk
Take block walking as an example. I've worked for three candidates who not only wore out their own shoes but directed their campaigns to do the same. Bill White in 2003, Hubert Vo in 2004, and Ellen Cohen in 2006 all committed to personally knocking on doors and meeting voters face to face. Now, this isn't a populist rant on how candidates need to meet more voters; it is instead a numerical rant. As the candidate is only one person, the most interaction that voters will get with the campaign isn't directly from the candidate, but from other campaign block walkers, which is simple math: with 1 candidate walking with 7 volunteers, the voter only has a 1 in 8 chance of actually getting the candidate on their doorstep. All three of these candidates knew they couldn't just throw their walkers outside and say "Go get 'em!" They worked with each walker on how to present our campaign and what information to retrieve from the people that answered the door.

While the story each person tells is vitally important, getting information back from walking is even more important than the message the walker puts into the field. Say a walker knocks on 50 doors and actually talks to 20 people. Out of those 20 people, 10 say they will support the candidate, 5 say they definitely will not, and 5 are undecided. Because of the information collected by this one walker, we are able to move 10 people on to our GOTV (Get Out The Vote) list, cut off 5 definite non-supporters, and target 5 undecideds with communications or other arms of the campaign. We have now helped identify our supporters and can more effectively target our resources to potential supporters. While 10 voters may not sound like a lot for 3 hours of block walking in the Texas heat, ask former Representative Talmadge Heflin how losing his seat by 33 votes to Hubert Vo tasted. Every vote counts, and the role of grassroots operations in GOTV allows a campaign, literally, to count their votes.

Getting On The Phone
The next logical step after identifying your supporters is turning them out. The two best campaigns I have seen at this are Bill White's and Donna Howard's. Multiple phone calls announcing when early vote begins and when it ends, reminders on when election day is, contact on election day, contact on election afternoon — calls need to take place at all of these points in the time line to turn out a candidate's supporters.

Yes, some folks find all the phone calls annoying. While working on Ellen Cohen's campaign, I would tell those folks that having Martha Wong as their state representative is more annoying, so they should just go vote. In Harris County, as in many counties around Texas, every morning a campaign could buy the list of people who voted the previous day, so identified supporters who have voted can be removed from the call list. So, as I told many a supporter, if you go and vote, I will quit calling you.

This is a very basic overview of why campaigns focus on the combination of voter identification and turnout. This part of the campaign operation can make the difference between winning and losing. People have said that Republicans have a superior turnout model and we are helpless to work against it. Please send those sentiments to Orlando Sanchez, Ben Bentzin, Talmadge Heflin, and Martha Wong. Democrats can be (and have been) just as effective in executing a mobilization plan.

A Good Story Goes A Long Way
There is, however, something bigger to take into account: the individual story of the candidate. This is the part that gives hope to those reading this and hoping that elections are not all about number crunching. The personal narrative is how a candidate attracts supporters. It is hard to argue with, and it humanizes the abstract nature of a typical campaign. While a candidate's messaging and issues plays a strong part, I would argue that the personal story of the individual running for office has perhaps the strongest influence on the campaign. That is why cotton farmer Pete Laney could win in a very Republican House District, and why women across Texas loved Ann Richards. They each had a great personal story.

To be effective, a candidate's story should show what issues are driving them toward their run for office. Bill White brought his background as a CEO of a $10 billion business and said the City of Houston needed someone with management experience. Hubert Vo said through hard work and opportunity he was able to become a successful businessman and community leader, but now Texas was closing opportunity programs through social services. Ellen Cohen runs an effective non-profit that deals with victims of sexual and domestic violence, and communicated that Texas could use someone with experience in addressing and solving problems.

The most common question people ask a candidate is "Why are you running?" I believe if candidates have a strong personal narrative to answer that question with, they have a good shot at gaining a supporter. More than philosophy or ideology, a story of personal conviction that people can relate to is magnetic — it can connect, and it is through that connection with voters that movements are built. A strong, well-organized campaign that pays attention to the math of resources and voters can take advantage of that movement and turn the candidate's story into an Election Day victory.