Iowa Caucus Open Thread

Biden swears there's no deal with Obama. Likewise, Thompson swears he isn't dropping out, detailed in a post from TPM humorously titled "Fred Yawns for the Finish Line."

There's a rumor going 'round that Hillary would appoint Bill to the Supreme Court if there was a vacancy. Some of the comments suggest this is a scare tactic to keep people from voting for Hillary.

Regardless, I want front row seats to that hearing.

Is caucusers even a word? Well it is for this comment!

I wonder if the Richardson caucusers have any endorsements from the campaign as to who to caucus with where Richardson is not viable?

The rumors over at Bleeding Heartland are that Richardson's folks are going to break for Obama where Richardson is not viable.

That could be HUGE if true. I've been very skeptical about Obama's numbers in Iowa because so much of them have relied on first time caucus-goers and college students. Add Richardson's and Biden's caucusers to Obama's support and suddenly that's a whole different picture.

An interesting break in the case of anti-Romney, anti-Mormon calls in New Hampshire from that state's AG, out just a few tantalizing hours before the Iowa caucus starts.

In this order:

Edwards, Obama, Clinton. (Biden.)

We have a contributor in Iowa right now, canvassing for the Edwards campaign. The fabulous Angela Brewer reports, "There's a huge amount of energy in the Edwards campaign office. He's working out of the Steelworkers' Union hall, and his sister has been making calls from there and getting really good response. Today is all about getting people who have either verbally or in writing at a rally committed to supporting Edwards, and getting them out to caucus and seeing if there's anything we can help them with, like a ride to the caucus site. We have a lady that fell on the ice earlier, and we'll be sending a steelworker to her house to help her out of her house and through the caucus. All in all, lots of people at phones making sure pledged caucusers show up to caucus."

(Prediction + Forecasting) / Reading Way Too Many Caucus Polls =

Edwards, Obama, Clinton, Richardson, Biden.

As for the Dark Side:

Huckabee, Romney, McCain, Thompson, Giuliani.

Edwards 35%

Obama 30%

Clinton 26%

I made my call in a Des Moines pub back in August, and due to my stubbornness I am sticking with it. I forsee Romney and Hillary in 1st, Huckabee and Obama/Edwards in 2nd, McCain and Edwards/Obama in 3rd, and finally Thompson/Guilliani and Richardson in 4th.

What is also important is who can capitalize most on a win or a big 2nd place upset. Unless someone beats Hillary tonight and can seriously roll into Feb 5 with the momentum, I just don't think her campaign can lose in the weeks to come. On the other side, however, its a whole different story. If Huckabee wins 1st, it looks like he just won't have the money, manpower, or organization to do much with his victory. I think the Republican primary is going to be a long and hard one, where even if Guilliani finishes fourth in Iowa, his camp is strong enough to be a real contender through March.

then Obama, Clinton and Dodd.

Think it will be Obama, Edwards, Clinton and then Richardson.

Back in 1984, I worked the Iowa caucuses for Gary Hart. Knocking on doors, dropping leaflets, and attending the caucuses themselves (but not voting, of course -- I was a California resident back then). A really interesting experience.

A LOT happens in the caucus hall itself. There's discussion about resolutions, local politics, etc. Then, after the first division into groups for presidential candidates, there's a ton of trying to get people to switch camps, and it's not just picking up the "unviable" groups. If a group is just short of viable, its members will lobby their friends for One More Voter, and sometimes they'll get it. If not, unviable groups will try to merge behind one candidate. If that fails, then their voters will disperse to the already viable groups.

All of this jockeying is PUBLIC. If somebody makes a good enough pitch, it can change a significant number of votes. Will that help Obama, Clinton or Edwards? I don't know, and neither does anybody else! I'm guessing Obama-Clinton-Edwards, but wouldn't be surprised by Edwards-Clinton-Obama.

The only result that would really surprise me is if there aren't any surprises!

Entrance polls for Iowa have Clinton and Obama well above others on the Democratic side, and Huckabee and Romney duking it out for the R's.

Anecdotal turnout reports are nuts. Some precincts are seeing three or four times more people than they saw in 2004. A large proportion of those new voters seems to be women, youth, and independents.

Senator John Edwards : 34.51%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 31.63%
Senator Barack Obama : 30.34%
Governor Bill Richardson : 1.77%
Senator Joe Biden : 1.38%
Senator Chris Dodd : 0.21%
Uncommitted : 0.16%
Precincts Reporting: 144 of 1781

Edwards 33%
Obama 32%
Clinton 32%
24% precincts in

Huckabee 36%
Romney 23%
Thompson 14%
15% precincts in